World Bank says SL recovery remarkable, among fastest worldwide

 

• Latest World Bank public finances diagnostic says SL made remarkable recovery
• Stabilisation sharper and faster than 123 countries since 1980
• Says Sri Lanka can move to a more balanced fiscal policy
• Points to fiscal space to grow revenue to support growth, equity and fairness
• Challenge is to get better results from every rupee collected and spent

The World Bank yesterday said Sri Lanka has made remarkable strides in stabilising its economy, undertaking one of the largest fiscal adjustments in its history, equal to nearly 8% of GDP over three years, and doing it faster than most countries.

In a statement announcing the release of its latest diagnostic title ‘Sri Lanka Public Finance Review: Towards a Balanced Fiscal Adjustment’, the World Bank said that this adjustment was also sharper and faster by international standards when compared with more than 330 similar efforts in 123 countries worldwide since 1980.

The review, a core World Bank diagnostic conducted every five years in member countries, concludes that Sri Lanka is well-positioned to focus on making public finances work better for all Sri Lankans.

“While fiscal measures helped restore stability, they also put pressure on households through higher indirect taxes and reduced real public-sector wages, and slowed growth due to lower public investment,” the statement said. “The next phase of fiscal calibration should prioritise raising revenues in ways that support growth and fairness, and improve the quality of government spending.”

The diagnostic review highlights that Sri Lanka could increase revenue by up to 2% by 2029 without undermining growth or equity. It also points out that better targeting and management of public spending can deliver improved outcomes within current budget limits.

The review recommends raising revenue more fairly and efficiently by shifting toward direct taxes, such as a minimum corporate income tax, and digitising tax administration to make paying taxes easier and more transparent.

It also recommends spending smarter, not more or less. The report stresses that it is not feasible to further cut or increase overall spending, but the best gains will come from using existing funds more efficiently to get better results.

This includes improving public sector wage management by protecting essential frontline services, simplifying pay structures, and modernising systems through which public sector workers are paid. It also entails reprioritising capital investments to close infrastructure gaps, completing ongoing projects faster, and strengthening project selection, management and maintenance.

Enhancing social protection by better targeting assistance, expanding the social registry, and moving from universal subsidies to more focused support for those who need it most, is another priority.

“Now that Sri Lanka has largely stabilised its economy, the challenge is to get better results from every rupee collected and spent,” said World Bank Division Director for Maldives, Nepal and Sri Lanka David Sislen. “This means modernising tax administration, focusing on direct taxes, and making sure public spending is both efficient and fair, especially for the most vulnerable,” he added. World Bank says SL recovery remarkable, among fastest worldwide | Daily FT

Read More........ → February 20, 2026

What the RBA wants Australians to do next to fight inflation – or risk more rate hikes

Meg Elkins, RMIT University

When the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board voted unanimously to lift the cash rate to 3.85% on Tuesday, the decision was driven by one overriding concern. It wants to stop the rising cost of living from becoming entrenched.

For some, like self-funded retirees, the rate rise was good news. Higher interest means their savings and term deposits will earn more. But for many others, including first home buyers who might have stretched themselves just to get a foot into the housing market, it was a very bad day.

RBA Governor Michele Bullock acknowledged that, saying:

I know this is not the news that Australians with mortgages want to hear, but it is the right thing for the economy.

She warned the alternative – letting inflation keep rising – would be even harder for more Australians.

So what’s the psychology behind the RBA raising rates now and leaving the door open to further hikes if needed? And what does the central bank hope Australians will do in response?

The price squeeze you’re feeling

There’s a striking gap between how the RBA describes the economy and how most Australians experience it.

On paper, things look healthy: unemployment is low, wages are growing.

But as Bullock acknowledged on Tuesday, the daily reality has felt very different.

The price level has gone up 20% to 25% over the last few years, and people see that every time they walk into a supermarket, or they go to the doctor, or whatever – that’s I think what’s hurting people.

That relentless price squeeze is not something you forget, even when the rate of increase starts to slow.

What’s driving inflation up?

The headline consumer price index (CPI) hit 3.8% in the year to December, well above the RBA’s target band of 2–3%. The “trimmed mean” – the underlying measure the RBA watches most closely – rose to 3.3%. Both are too high and moving in the wrong direction.

Bullock singled out three factors contributing to inflation. Each behaves differently and requires a different response.

Housing was the single largest contributor to inflation in December, up 5.5% over the year. That includes rents, which rose 3.9% (or 4.2% stripping out government rent assistance), as well as insurance, utilities, and new construction costs, which rose 3% as builders passed through higher labour and material costs.

There is an irony here. Rising interest rates are intended to cool demand, but they slow housing construction. Limited supply of housing is what’s pushing rents up in the first place.

“Durable goods” are the things we buy to last, such as cars, refrigerators, washing machines, televisions and furniture. Demand for many of those has been higher in the past year.

“Market services” are items such as restaurant meals, taxis, haircuts, gym memberships, medical appointments and holiday travel.

The RBA watches these carefully, because these are services priced by supply and demand in the domestic market. Those prices tend to be “sticky”: once they start rising, they don’t come back down easily.

Wages are also a big part of market services inflation. If the people providing those services are earning more, the cost goes up.

How rate cuts made shoppers relax

This is where the behavioural psychology gets interesting.

The RBA cut interest rates three times in 2025. Each cut sent a signal, whether intentionally or not: it’s OK to spend a bit more.

And spend we did. CommBank data shows Australians spent A$23.8 billion over the two-week Black Friday period, up 4.6% on the year before.

It’s a cautionary tale about “rational expectations”. Each rate cut potentially fuelled the belief that more would follow.

If people feel like they can afford to spend, then they spend. Businesses, sensing demand, may raise their prices to match. That’s exactly the self-fulfilling dynamic central banks worry about.

The 3 ways the RBA hopes we’ll react

When prices go up, as they have been, workers ask for bigger wage rises to keep up. To pay higher wages, businesses lift prices to protect their profit margins. Together, that can create a “wage-price spiral” that becomes very hard to break.

The RBA will be hoping Australians respond to this rate rise in three ways:

• spending less

• saving more

• not asking for big wage rises (although they’d never phrase it that way).

RBA Governor Michele Bullock described raising interest rates as “a very blunt instrument” to bring inflation down, and noted setting rates is “not a science. It’s a bit of an art, really […] We’ve just got to respond as best we can.”

The RBA can’t undo the price rises that have already happened. It can only try to slow down further increases.

Meg Elkins, Associate Professor in Economics, RMIT University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Read More........ → February 06, 2026

India’s GDP growth likely to scale 7.5 per cent in FY 26: SBI report

IANS Photo

New Delhi, (IANS): While the 7.4 per cent GDP growth rate projected for FY 26 in the first advance estimates of the Ministry of Statistics "is quite expected and reasonable", the actual figure is eventually likely to be higher at around 7.5 per cent, an SBI Ecowrap report released on Wednesday stated.

"We believe that GDP growth for FY26 would be around 7.5 per cent with an upward bias. The second advance estimates, incorporating additional data and revisions, are scheduled to be released on February 27, 2026. So, all these numbers are expected to change with the base revision to 2022-23," the SBI report said.

On the expenditure side, the heads that have positively contributed include the government consumption with a growth of 5.2 per cent in real terms, it said.

Exports have also held their ground with positive growth of 6.4 per cent. Private consumption growth was a tad lower at 7 per cent, possibly due to a slowdown in the agriculture sector. Per capita consumption expenditure registered a growth of 6.1 per cent. Uptick in government consumption, and traction in services has held up the demand in FY26, cushioning the impact of external headwinds, the report further said.

Capital formation, which slowed last year, has recovered in FY26. The real growth in capital formation at 7.8 per cent was higher by 70 basis points (bps) from last year’s growth. The nominal capital formation growth was also higher, indicating a revival in investment demand, the SBI report observed.

Imports have registered a growth of 9 per cent in nominal terms but a growth of 14.4 per cent in real terms. However, this is expected to moderate in FY27, given the outlook on energy prices, the report pointed out.The fiscal deficit at the end of November 25 stood at Rs 9.8 lakh crore or 62.3 per cent of the budget estimate (BE). Although the tax revenue is likely to be lower than the budgeted for FY26, non-tax revenue will be on the higher side, thereby not impacting the overall receipts much. Total expenditure is also expected to be lower, leading to a fiscal deficit of Rs 15.85 lakh crore compared to the budgeted Rs 15.69 lakh crore. With the new higher GDP figure, the fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP is likely to remain unchanged at 4.4 per cent, the report added. India’s GDP growth likely to scale 7.5 per cent in FY 26: SBI report | MorungExpress | morungexpress.com

Read More........ → January 09, 2026