Birth rates are declining in most of the world, including Australia. Here’s why that really matters

Liz Allen, Australian National University

Birth rates have been declining worldwide since the peak of the post-second world war baby boom. Birth rates have now reached below replacement in most of the world, including Australia. Put simply, populations on average aren’t replacing themselves.

Everyone from Elon Musk to Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, to the pope have opinions on declining total fertility (or birth) rates – the average number of births per woman.

Overpopulation has dominated popular discourse since the 1960s. While fears of overpopulation remain, especially tied to immigration, concerns have shifted to depopulation and the related economic and national security issues.

Overpopulation fears to depopulation woes

In his 1968 book The Population Bomb, Paul Ehrlich warned the 1970s would bring “people, people, people, people” and an overpopulation “cancer” resulting in famine and war. Human extinction was imminent, we were warned.

Overpopulation-associated human extinction has not come to be.

The global total fertility rate has more than halved since 1950. Average birth rates for OECD countries now sit at 1.46 births per woman, well below the 2.1 required for generational replacement.

World population decline is projected by the mid-2080s. China is now in its fourth year of population decline. South Korea has been declining since 2019 with its near-global record low birth rates. Germany has seen deaths outnumber births since 1972. Japan, Greece, Italy, Cuba and Thailand are also among those in the depopulation club.

Without immigration, the United Kingdom would also see population decline, with deaths outnumbering births. Australia is about a generation away from the same fate. Immigration controls have seen depopulation in Canada.

Birth rates a solution to the ageing ‘problem’

Enormous advancements since the 1950s, mostly in health and medical technologies like immunisation, mean humans are living longer. We’re also having fewer children, and as a result populations are ageing.

An ageing population is a mark of success and human ingenuity, but economic systems tend to view ageing societies as problematic.

Workers and working-aged people are essential to maintain a healthy economy. Individual income taxpayers are the top source of federal government revenue in Australia. Too few people of working age replacing those retiring can seriously undermine economic wellbeing, forcing governments to do more service provision with less financial resources.

Below-replacement fertility and its implications for government bottom lines have resulted in Australian politicians calling on Australians to have more babies. “Have one for mum, one for dad, and one for the country”, treasurer Peter Costello famously said in 2004.

In 2020, former prime minister Tony Abbott suggested the wrong kind of women were having children, calling on “middle class” women to have more. Talking the budget, treasurer Jim Chalmers in 2024 said it would be “better if birth rates were higher”.

Human catastrophe of low birth rates

People are increasingly saying the choice to have children is constrained by external factors. Worldwide, around one-in-five surveyed by the United Nations said fears about the future would or has resulted in them having fewer children than they wanted.

Housing affordability, economic stability, gender inequality and climate change present insurmountable barriers for having a much-wanted family.

The lack of choice to have children in below-replacement regions, I’d argue is indeed a human catastrophe. How is it that we’ve allowed society to become so hostile that children are out of the question for so many who want them?

The intergenerational bargain is well and truly corrupted.

We are confronted with the tough question of who will care for us with the children gone.

Can a human catastrophe be avoided?

The burden of having a family falls on working-aged people, especially women.

A baby bonus or one-off payment is unlikely to change people’s minds and increase the total fertility rate; such payments merely change timing. Instead, increasing total fertility rates requires a comprehensive suite of measures from a policy perspective.

Tackling the big four big domains of housing, the economy, gender and climate encompass issues such as

• secure, affordable and appropriate housing
• employment and income security
• accessible childcare
• social and workplace gender equality
• climate change action.

People of childbearing age aren’t being hedonistic when making family and fertility decisions. They’re not thinking about themselves, they’re actually thinking about the future world and weighing what that might look like for prospective children.

Loss of hope among people of childbearing age, including fears of being left behind, contribute to overall concerns about an insecure future.

Not only is the human catastrophe of low births rates reflecting more widespread concerns, such as insecurity, it could also be undermining social cohesion.

Rather than an exploding bomb of overpopulation, the world faces an economic and social implosion due to lacking substantive supports necessary to help raise much-wanted children.

Surely it’s beyond time we ask people what they actually need – and give it to them.

Liz Allen, Demographer, POLIS Centre for Social Policy Research, Australian National University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Read More........ → May 15, 2026

A new ad campaign is pushing Australians to use less petrol. Has this happened before?

David Lee, UNSW Sydney

A new federal government advertising campaign is prompting Australians to reduce their fuel consumption during the current global oil crisis.

It asks Australians to consider using their car less and offers tips to boost fuel efficiency, such as “driving smoothly” and “unloading excess weight”.

It comes soon after Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s whirlwind trip to Singapore, which makes up more than a quarter of Australia’s refined fuel imports, including more than half of our petrol, 22% of jet fuel and 15% of diesel.

However, the launch of the campaign shows the government is concerned to some degree about fuel supplies in Australia.

The federal government’s new campaign is titled ‘every little bit helps’.

So, why is this happening, are there historic precedents in Australia and what are other countries doing at the moment?

Why the concerns about fuel supply?

The campaign comes two weeks after national cabinet endorsed a four-stage National Fuel Security Plan – which mentions rationing as a final step – as global fuel supplies continue to fluctuate due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

The Strait of Hormuz is a key factor – it was tentatively re-opened after the two-week ceasefire was agreed to last week. Since then, Iran has blocked ships from passing through the strait after Israel launched a wave of strikes in Lebanon. Then on Monday, US President Donald Trump threatened to block it via the US Navy.

Even before the ceasefire, the Australian government said it had secured supplies into May and that rationing would not be needed.

But it may be necessary if there’s no lasting peace in the Middle East.

How Asian countries are responding

Asian economies are particularly dependent on oil and gas supplies from the Middle East. According to the US Energy Information Administration, 84% of crude oil shipped through the Strait of Hormuz in 2024 was bound for Asia.

Understandably, several countries have already introduced rationing or other measures:

• Myanmar uses an “odd-even” system based on license plates, allowing the purchase of fuel on alternating days

• Thailand has encouraged remote work for public servants and asked residents to limit the use of air conditioning

• Vietnam has promoted cycling and carpooling

• Sri Lanka has implemented a weekly ration system for vehicles using a QR code

• Indonesia, South East Asia’s largest economy, has capped daily purchases for private consumers and asked public servants to work from home once a week

• The Philippines declared a national emergency and implemented governmental conservation measures.

Countries in Europe and Africa have also implemented rationing but Asian countries have been particularly affected.

Australia’s experience with fuel conservation

Australia has rationed petrol in earlier emergencies.

When the second world war broke out in September 1939, Australia only had enough petrol to last three months of normal consumption.

At first, the wartime government led by Robert Menzies encouraged Australians voluntarily to reduce their petrol consumption and promoted conversion to vehicles powered by gas from coal.

But as the fighting intensified, oil tankers which were on their way to Australia turned around because of the war, and supplies dwindled.

In June 1940, cabinet aimed to reduce consumption by 50%, a goal later reduced to 30%.

Under national security regulations, civilians were issued ration coupons limiting how much fuel a person could purchase. Non-essential driving was restricted. Public transport and essential industries were prioritised and diesel was tightly controlled for military and agricultural operations.

Even in wartime, rationing was unpopular. The issue contributed to Menzies’s near-defeat at the September 1940 election. His government was replaced the following year by a Labor government.

The end of the war did not automatically lead to the end of petrol rationing.

This was because Australia had to use US dollars to purchase most of its petrol, which were in short supply throughout the British Commonwealth. Consequently, the Chifley government continued with rationing to conserve dollars.

In June 1949, the High Court decided rationing was a matter for states – not the Commonwealth.

Australia’s next serious oil crisis came in the 1970s.

In 1973, the Organisation of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) reduced oil production and suspended deliveries to some western countries.

Like many other countries, Australia experienced “stagflation” – higher unemployment and inflation – for about a decade.

But Australia was shielded from the full reverberations because it reached about 70% sufficiency in oil through the discovery of oil and natural gas in Bass Strait.

Only in 1979, after a second oil price spike and a strike at the Caltex Refinery in Kurnell, New South Wales, was petrol rationing introduced through an “odd-even” number plate method.

Further action on fuel supply

After the 1970s oil crisis, the Hawke government sponsored legislation to allow the Governor-General to declare a formal national liquid fuel emergency.

The Liquid Fuel Emergency Act may be invoked as a last resort when a fuel shortage has national implications.

Under the act, the minister for climate change and energy can direct refineries, importers and distributors to adjust production and manage stocks.

The legislation also allows the government to implement two levels of rationing: retail and bulk.

Retail rationing involves service stations limiting how much individual motorists can buy at a time while also exempting essential users.

Bulk rationing targets large-scale distributors and wholesale customers, such as mining companies and large transport fleets.

Historic footage shows how Australians coped with fuel conservation in the past.

A reprieve, for now

Albanese’s National Fuel Security Plan mentions rationing as a final step.

Triggers include shortages threatening the operation of critical infrastructure, stockpiles being dangerously depleted and if the economy is at risk of stalling.

The wobbly ceasefire in the Middle East means Australians have been granted a reprieve. But rationing remains a possibility if hostilities resume.

David Lee, Associate Professor of History, UNSW Sydney

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Read More........ → May 01, 2026

Electric vehicles: what to know if you’re considering an EV

Most EV drivers charge at home a few times a week. Fast chargers are used on longer trips. Zaptech/Unsplash

Hussein Dia, Swinburne University of Technology Soaring petrol prices are once again making many Australians think seriously about switching to an electric vehicle.

As politicians warn Australians not to resort to panic buying, finding constructive ways to reduce your petrol costs and cut carbon emissions has become increasingly appealing.

The strikes on Iran have seen prices of Brent crude – the global oil benchmark – trade around US$104 (A$150) per barrel, up from roughly US$68 (A$96) a few weeks earlier. There is no clear end in sight for the current crisis.

The good news is buying and owning an electric car is becoming much easier as more models arrive in Australia and charging networks expand. But there are still a few things worth considering before making the switch.

What should you look for when choosing an EV?

Choosing an electric vehicle is not very different from choosing any other car. Size, price and safety features still matter.

But there are a few additional things worth checking.

The first is driving range, which is how far the vehicle can travel on a full battery. Most new EVs sold in Australia offer between 300 and 500 kilometres of range, which is more than enough for typical daily driving.

It is also worth looking at charging capability. Some vehicles can accept faster charging speeds than others, meaning they can recharge more quickly when using high-power public chargers. This can make a difference on long trips.

Finally, check the battery warranty. Most manufacturers offer warranties of eight years or around 160,000km, providing reassurance about long-term battery performance.

For most buyers, the key is simply choosing a vehicle that suits their everyday driving needs.

How To Buy The Right Electric Car.

Check how much you drive

An important question to ask when choosing an electric vehicle is: how far do you usually drive each day?

Most Australians drive far less than they think. Car passenger kilometres per person have reduced from a peak of 13,184 in 2004 to 10,238 in 2024–25.

That’s roughly 28km per day, meaning many drivers could go several days between charges with today’s EVs. Most new models now sold in Australia have a real-world driving range of 300–500km on a full battery.

In practice, many EV owners simply plug their car in at home overnight once or twice a week.

Most EV drivers charge at home a few times a week. Fast chargers are used on longer trips. Zaptech/Unsplash

Do you need to install a charger at home?

Many people assume installing a home charger is essential, but that is not always the case.

Electric vehicles can be charged from a standard household power point. This is the slowest method, but it can still add 10–15km of range per hour of charging. At that rate, a 12-hour overnight charge could give you up to 180km.

Many owners choose to install a dedicated wall charger instead. These typically cost A$1,000–2,000 plus installation. These charge much faster, allowing most vehicles to fully recharge overnight.

Fast chargers are useful, but usually not for everyday charging. Public fast chargers are designed mainly for longer trips.

These high-power chargers can add 150–300km of driving range per hour, depending on the vehicle and type of charger.

They are very convenient for highway travel but usually cost more than charging at home. Public fast charging can range from around 50 to 70 cents per kilowatt-hour, which is still cheaper than petrol, but the savings are smaller than charging at home.

Many EV owners only use public chargers occasionally, not every day.

EV drivers in Australia will come across three different charger speeds. Here’s how they work.

How much should you charge the battery?

Another common question is whether EV batteries should always be charged to 100%.

For everyday driving, many manufacturers recommend keeping the battery between 20% and 80% most of the time. This helps maximise long-term battery health.

A fully charged battery is generally under more stress. However, charging to 100% shortly before a long trip is fine. Modern EV battery management systems are designed to protect the battery automatically.

In practice, drivers quickly develop simple routines, often charging overnight a few times per week.

How much could you save on fuel?

One of the main reasons drivers consider switching to an EV is the potential saving on running costs.

Electric cars are typically cheaper to run because electricity costs less than petrol and electric motors are far more energy efficient than combustion engines.

Home charging is also the cheapest way to run an EV. Electricity for overnight charging typically costs 20–30c per kilowatt-hour, which can translate to around $3–5 per 100km of driving.

By comparison, fuel-efficient petrol cars typically consume 6–8 litres per 100km and cost $14–18 to drive that distance at current fuel prices.

That difference can add up quickly over a year. Online tools, such as our public EV payback calculator, allow drivers to compare different vehicles and test how savings change depending on electricity prices, fuel costs and driving distance.

What if you live in an apartment or unit?

Charging can be more complicated for people living in apartments or units, but options are expanding quickly.

Many new residential developments now include shared EV charging infrastructure in car parks. Some apartment owners are also installing chargers in their individual parking spaces where building rules allow it.

Workplace charging is another growing option. Many employers are beginning to install chargers for staff vehicles, allowing drivers to top up their battery during the day.

Public charging networks are expanding across Australian cities. While these chargers typically cost more than home electricity, they provide an important option for drivers without dedicated parking or charging access at home.

As EV adoption increases, improving charging access for apartment residents is becoming a major focus for building managers and policymakers.

Where next?

The decision to switch to an electric vehicle has never been more straightforward. Ranges are longer, models are more affordable, charging networks are expanding and running costs are lower than ever.

As petrol prices remind Australians of their exposure to global oil markets, the case for making the switch gets stronger.

For most drivers, the question is no longer whether an EV could work for them – it is simply a matter of when.

Hussein Dia, Professor of Transport Technology and Sustainability, Swinburne University of Technology

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Read More........ → March 19, 2026