Says American professor Allan J Lichtman, a historian by training and a psephologist by With the US election for the 45th President nearing, there is curiosity over the outcome, keeping some on tenterhooks. Regardless of the speculations in this regard, we have an American professor who forecasts the possible next President of the US. One would turn eager to know who will be the next President, according to Allan J Lichtman’s forecast. It will be Barack Obama again according to the professor. Allan J Lichtman, a historian by training and a psephologist by choice, is on a tour of India, visiting major cities and interacting with the media and other personalities on the US elections and its impact on the rest of the world. Lichtman, a history professor at the American University, Washington DC, has developed a formula based on certain parameters to ascertain the winning chances of Presidential candidates of both the parties -- Democratics and Republicans. The psephologist has been successful in forecast for 28 years -- since 1984. He has his own prediction for this year too. Who’ll be the next President. Can Barrack Obama retain his position? His formula of 13 keys comprise questions on the party mandate, performance of the party on issues of economy, policy change, social unrest, foreign/military success, and strengths of the party candidate. “I forecast accurately who will be the next President for seven elections so far. My formula ‘13 keys to the White House’ clearly segregates multiple factors into 13 focused aspects. Higher the number of favourable statements, the incumbent party wins. When six or more fall, the challenging party wins. Here, as per my 13 keys formula, Barrack Obama gets 11 statements true out of the 13 keys, making it clear that Democratic Party is going to retain the power,” forecasts Lichtman at an interactive session with the media organised by the US Consulate General, Hyderabad, here on Thursday. Hyderabad is the second city on his maiden India tour, after Trivandrum; and next is Kolkata followed by New Delhi, etc. He spoke across different topics pertaining to US elections. Answering a question on post election impact on India, he said: “Regardless of who’s the next President, it doesn’t matter for India. However, it matters for countries like Pakistan.” Distinguishing the style of functioning of Democrats and Republicans, he said: “Republican Party in 1980s safeguarded rich by imposing lower taxes. Republican President Ronald Reagan believed that lower taxes on rich enable them to invest more. He went on deregulating industry and built strong military base. Contrary to this, Democrats, Barack Obama, imposed more taxes on rich, more regulations on the industry. He spends less on military. Bill Clinton-led Democratic government was too conservative.” In 1990, Lichtman wrote a book ‘13 Keys to the White House’ focusing on definitions of all the 13 Keys. “Many Americans think Obama will lose power, going by the present economic slowdown, rising unemployment rate, lot of protests, etc, but as per my formula he’ll be back. In the 2000 elections also, Al Gore won on popularity count, but ultimately George Bush won by 537 votes,” added Lichtman. Source: The Hans India
