China’s youth unemployment problem has become a crisis we can no longer ignore

Shutterstock Christian Yao, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington

Youth unemployment is a global problem, but in China the rate - 21.3% - is particularly alarming, not just because it’s high, but because it could affect other economies and geopolitical relations.

The release of the rate, which more than doubled the pre-COVID rate of May 2018, coincided with China’s National Bureau of Statistics announcing it would no longer report age specific data because it needed to “improve and optimise labour force survey statistics”.

Youth unemployment is a complex issue, but even more so in China as a result of government policy and society’s expectations.

Under the Hukou system, households in China are required to register, and authorities then determine where they live and work and which public services they can access.

The system often stops rural residents taking advantage of urban opportunities, which can limit their work prospects.

The stress and uncertainty experienced by this demographic is only worsened by the expectations that come with being the only child in the family as a result of China’s one child policy, which was abandoned only seven years ago.

The “Ant Tribe” phenomenon

The term “Ant Tribe” was coined in 2009 by sociologist Lian Si to describe highly educated young people stuck in low-paying, temporary jobs that hinder skill advancement.

These young people can’t accumulate social capital, leading to a negative cycle that’s hard to escape. This diminishes their return on their investment in education and highlights a breakdown in the career ecosystem.

The “Ant Tribe” phenomenon is more than just a sign of a flawed economy. It also reveals a deeper emotional and psychological issue. Being over educated and underemployed causes significant emotional trauma, including anxiety, depression and hopelessness.

This emotional toll is further complicated by societal shifts such as the “lying flat” movement and the rise of “full time children” in China.

These trends challenge traditional markers of success and redefine family expectations, adding another layer to the psychological complexities faced by the younger generation. The impact can be long-lasting, leading to a less productive and innovative workforce.

Weaknesses in the education system

Despite rapid expansion in higher education, a disconnect exists between university curricula and job market needs.

Programs often favour theory over practical skills, leaving graduates ill-equipped for work. For example, engineering students might focus on equations and theories but miss out on real-world applications such as internships.

 

Overqualified candidates flood the jobs market, forcing many to return to study. Shutterstock

Additionally, the market faces a glut of overqualified candidates, especially in the technology, finance and healthcare sectors. This imbalance drives many towards further studies.

In 2023, a total of 4.74 million students took the postgraduate entrance exam, a staggering 135% increase on the 2.01 million test takers in 2017. This cycle exacerbates youth unemployment and underemployment.

The wider impact

The ripple effect of China’s youth unemployment crisis is not to be underestimated. Drawing on warnings from UNICEF, high unemployment rates can lead to civil unrest, especially in nations with a large youth population.

The Chinese Communist Party has long maintained its authoritarian approach by securing a social licence based on economic stability and prosperity.

If rising youth unemployment erodes this licence by fostering political disengagement or radicalisation, China could experience a significant internal power shift.

In a globally connected world, such turmoil could spill over into international relations. Civic unrest can make a country less stable and thus less attractive to foreign investment, especially among nations with close economic ties to China.

Such an internal upheaval also threatens to destabilise supply chains globally, given China’s pivotal role in global supply chains.

Historical examples such as the Arab Spring and Brexit show internal dissatisfaction and social unrest can have ripple effects on a country’s international relations.

The Arab Spring led to the overthrow of multiple governments, created regional instability, influenced global oil prices, and necessitated the resetting of foreign policy by Western countries.

 

Instability in Britain caused by Brexit led to changes in foreign policy. Shutterstock

Similarly, Brexit impacted global trade agreements, led to political realignment, and caused the European Union to reconsider its future direction, affecting its collective foreign policy.

While youth unemployment is a global dilemma, the extent of the problem in China and its potential broader impact on interconnected economies means we can’t afford to ignore it.

What can China do to solve the problem?

China can find policy inspiration from successful initiatives in other countries, such as Germany’s dual vocational training system. This system ensures students are both academically prepared and practically skilled, better aligning education with labour market demands.

Addressing the urban/rural divide is equally crucial. By offering financial incentives including tax breaks and grants, China could promote job growth in rural areas. Australia and the United States have adopted similar models to attract healthcare workers to less populated regions.

China also needs to do something to reduce the emotional toll of chronic unemployment which worsens the longer graduates are out of work. Post-COVID, the issue is exacerbated, with 40% of Chinese youth reported to be susceptible to mental health challenges.

This is where mental health services such as those available in Australia that are tailored to young people could help. Besides benefiting the individual, these programs contribute to a more engaged, productive workforce essential for national well being.

The precarious nature of the gig economy can further deepen the unemployment crisis. Some European countries such as France and the Netherlands consider gig workers employees and offer social security benefits. A similar model could be implemented in China, providing benefits such as health insurance and retirement plans.

Finally, the scale and complexity of youth unemployment requires a multi-pronged approach that extends beyond national borders.

Countries should actively share successful employment strategies and cooperate on international initiatives to create job opportunities for youth. Collaboration is the key to developing a globally stable, productive young workforce.

Investing in young people isn’t just good policy. It’s a moral imperative for global stability and shared prosperity.

Christian Yao, Senior Lecturer, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Read More........ → October 13, 2023

Cheng Lei released by China and reunited with family in Melbourne

Michelle Grattan, University of Canberra

Cheng Lei, the Australian journalist incarcerated in China since August 2020, has been freed – arriving in Melbourne to be reunited with her family. She was met at the airport by Foreign Minister Penny Wong, with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announcing her release at a Melbourne news conference on Wednesday. Albanese said he had spoken with Cheng, who has two young daughters, and she was “delighted” to be back in Melbourne. He said that in the call he had welcomed her home on behalf of all Australians. “Her return brings an end to a very difficult few years for Ms Cheng and her family,” Albanese said. He described her as “a very strong and resilient person”. Cheng, 48, who was born in China, was a business journalist with China’s state-run English language television station CGTN when she was detained. She was accused of “illegally supplying state secrets overseas”. Her trial took place in secret. Her release comes after continued representations by Australia, including by Albanese himself. It appears to be timed as a gesture ahead of Albanese’s visit to Beijing later this year, and follows the lifting of most restrictions on Australian commodities. Those left cover wine and some seafoods. Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Read More........ → October 11, 2023

At G-20, Biden announces ambitious corridor connecting India, Europe

President Biden with PM Modi at Raj Ghat Sept. 10, 2023. PHOTO: X @narendramodi

NEW DELHI – President Biden and several other world leaders announced plans here Saturday afternoon for a new rail and shipping corridor that would connect India and Europe through the Middle East, an ambitious proposal aimed at further connecting a volatile region and countering China’s years-long backing of massive infrastructure projects around the world.

The announcement solidified a preliminary agreement among a range of participants – including the United States, India, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Israel, the United Arab Emirates and the European Union – and came as leaders of the world’s largest economies tried to work through divisions on a range of thorny issues.

By midafternoon, the leaders here had reached consensus on a 37-page joint declaration on 83 points, several of which referred to Russia’s war in Ukraine. The debate over the war led some to predict that such a statement would prove elusive, particularly given that Russia is a member of the G-20. But they arrived at language that stated that “all states must refrain from the threat or use of force to seek territorial acquisition,” and also stated that “the use or threat of use of nuclear weapons is inadmissible.” The language was not as pointed as it was during last year’s conference and did not explicitly name Russia as the aggressor in the war.

The leaders did highlight the “suffering and negative added impacts of the war in Ukraine” on a range of issues, including global food supply and energy security. But in the dry language of diplomacy, the statement added, “There were different views and assessments of the situation.”

In a Facebook post, Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Oleg Nikolenko said the G-20 has “nothing to be proud of” on the language over Russian aggression in Ukraine, and he offered his own edits of how the portions regarding Ukraine should have been written.

The declaration in another section also formalized that the United States would host the G-20 in 2026, overcoming some late opposition from China.

“This is a significant milestone for India’s chairmanship and vote of confidence that the G-20 can come together to address a pressing range of issues and also to deal with hard issues that actually very much [divided] some members from others – including, obviously, Russia’s brutal war against Ukraine,” Jake Sullivan, the national security adviser, said shortly after the deal was reached.

“I have got good news. From our team’s hard work, we have reached an agreement on the G-20 declaration,” Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the summit’s host, said in Hindi, prompting a long round of applause from the G-20 leaders.

Biden came to the conference determined to try to showcase that the G-20 can maintain its relevance even after Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin sent deputies instead of attending themselves, amid tensions over the war in Ukraine.

Asked whether Xi’s absence affected the summit, Biden said, “It would be nice to have him here but, no, the summit is going well.”

Shortly after the declaration was announced, Biden joined other leaders to announce the rail corridor.

“This is a big deal,” he said. “This is a real big deal.”

The cost of the project was unclear, but senior Biden administration officials view it as a way to link key areas of the world, India to Europe, opening up new trading partnerships and a flow of energy and digital information. Also significant is having Israel working with a historical adversary such as Saudi Arabia; Biden is separately hoping to broker a deal to normalize relations between the two countries.

Deputy national security adviser Jon Finer noted the significance of reaching an agreement in an area that “has, obviously often been a net exporter of turbulence and insecurity.”

“Linking these two regions, we think, is a huge opportunity, building on our broader efforts over the last couple of years to turn the temperature down across the region,” Finer said.

Officials in the countries involved are expected within 60 days to come up with a timeline for the projects – linking energy grids, laying undersea and overland cables, and providing more digital connections. Some of the tasks involve installing hydrogen pipelines from Israel to Europe, which administration officials hope will advance clean energy goals.

The summit took place against the backdrop of a city that largely has been shut down amid tight security, with police officers standing at nearly every intersection and shops and restaurants closed.

Most of the conference meetings were closed to the news media, but Biden entered the opening session planning to outline his opposition to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

American officials unsuccessfully lobbied to have Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky address the conference, something he did in person during a Group of Seven gathering in Hiroshima, Japan, and which he did virtually during last year’s G-20 in Bali.

“Our view is that it is fundamentally a good thing when President Zelensky is able to make his case and Ukraine’s case for, you know, how damaging this conflict has been to his people and to his country,” Finer said. “He is the most effective messenger for that. And it’s certainly in a format in which, you know, Russian representatives will be able to give their views about the conflict that is appropriate for Ukraine to be able to offer its perspective.”

Biden arrived at the summit on Saturday morning, walking down a long corridor to greet Modi. “How are you?” he asked as he approached, appearing to jog up a slight incline before the two leaders shook and held hands while examining a G-20 logo that had the motto, “One Earth. One Family. One Future.”

They later met in a large room with three rows of desks in an oval, a chandelier hanging above them and small flags denoting where each country’s leader was to sit.

During the first session, Biden was between British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Indonesian President Joko Widodo. Before Biden sat down, several others greeted him, among them leaders from Australia, the Netherlands, Germany and Nigeria.

“This period in the 21st century is a time to give the entire world a new direction. It is a time when age-old problems are demanding new solutions from us,” Modi said in an address to the global leaders as he sat behind a nameplate reading not India but Bharat – the Hindi name for the country – signaling a branding shift that has been the source of controversy for many in the nation.

The negotiations over a joint communiqué had been difficult, especially around language regarding the Ukraine war.

While it did note the harm of the war and the importance of territorial sovereignty, it did not name Russia as the perpetrator and was less direct in some of the language than was agreed to last year during the G-20 in Bali. At that meeting, while noting there were some disagreements, it referred to a U.N. resolution that “deplores in the strongest terms the aggression by the Russian Federation against Ukraine and demands its complete and unconditional withdrawal from the territory of Ukraine.”

When asked about the change in text over the course of a year, Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar said that some conditions have changed in the war.

“Bali was Bali and New Delhi was New Delhi,” he said. “Bali was a year ago and the situation was different. Many things have happened since then.”

He went on to add, “One should not have a theological view of this. New Delhi declaration is responding to the situation of today just as the Bali declaration did to the situation a year ago.”

The language also was the result of a lengthy negotiation. India’s chief G-20 coordinator, Amitabh Kant, said that Brazil, South Africa and Indonesia were helpful in reaching consensus.

“It was a tough, ruthless negotiation that went on for several days nonstop,” he said.

Indian officials expressed frustration that the war has overshadowed other issues, such as successfully negotiating the African Union’s acceptance into the G-20. For the first time, a representative of the African Union joined the gathering, with the chairman of the 55-member bloc, Comoros President Azali Assoumani, being introduced by Modi.“For all our moral idealism in foreign policy, we accept things as they are and find a way around it,” said India expert Aparna Pande of the Hudson Institute. “At the end of the day, you work with what you got.”At G-20, Biden announces ambitious corridor connecting India, Europe

Read More........ → September 11, 2023