FILE PHOTO: A worker arranges food packets inside a retail store in Kolkata October 24, 2013. REUTERS/Rupak De Chowdhuri/File Photo
India will remain the fastest-growing major economy recording a growth of 5.8 per cent this year while the rest of the world will grow by a paltry 1.9 per cent, the UN said on Jan. 26, 2023. The UN’s World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) report sliced off 0.2 per cent from the 6 per cent gross domestic product growth projection made last May without affecting India’s rank as the country faces headwinds from the global economy Overall, the report said, “Growth in India is expected to remain strong at 5.8 per cent, albeit slightly lower than the estimated 6.4 per cent in 2022, as higher interest rates and a global slowdown weigh on investment and exports”. Next year, the UN expects India’s economy to grow by 6.7 per cent. The WESP gave a positive picture of India’s jobs scene, noting that its “unemployment rate dropped to a four-year low of 6.4 per cent in India, as the economy added jobs both in urban and rural areas in 2022”. For the world, the WESP forecast is 1.9 per cent this year and rising to 2.7 per cent next year. In New Delhi, India’s President Droupudi Murmu credited India’s economic performance to its leadership”. “India has been among the fastest-growing major economies because of the timely and proactive interventions of the government. The ‘Aatmanirbhar Bharat’ initiative, in particular, has evoked great response among the people at large,” Murmu said in her Republic Day speech. China, which came in second, is projected to grow by 4.8 per cent this year and 4.5 next year, after a 3 per cent growth in 2022. The US economy is projected to grow by 0.4 per cent this year and 1.7 per cent the next. For South Asia as a whole, the report said the region’s “economic outlook has significantly deteriorated due to high food and energy prices, monetary tightening and fiscal vulnerabilities” and it forecast a 4.8 per cent growth year and 5.9 per cent next year.This was buoyed by India as the report said, “The prospects are more challenging for other economies in the region. Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka sought financial assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 2022”.India will remain fastest growing economy; South Asia outlook poor: UN report
Youth unemployment is a global problem, but in China the rate - 21.3% - is particularly alarming, not just because it’s high, but because it could affect other economies and geopolitical relations.
The release of the rate, which more than doubled the pre-COVID rate of May 2018, coincided with China’s National Bureau of Statistics announcing it would no longer report age specific data because it needed to “improve and optimise labour force survey statistics”.
Youth unemployment is a complex issue, but even more so in China as a result of government policy and society’s expectations.
Under the Hukou system, households in China are required to register, and authorities then determine where they live and work and which public services they can access.
The system often stops rural residents taking advantage of urban opportunities, which can limit their work prospects.
The stress and uncertainty experienced by this demographic is only worsened by the expectations that come with being the only child in the family as a result of China’s one child policy, which was abandoned only seven years ago.
The “Ant Tribe” phenomenon
The term “Ant Tribe” was coined in 2009 by sociologist Lian Si to describe highly educated young people stuck in low-paying, temporary jobs that hinder skill advancement.
These young people can’t accumulate social capital, leading to a negative cycle that’s hard to escape. This diminishes their return on their investment in education and highlights a breakdown in the career ecosystem.
The “Ant Tribe” phenomenon is more than just a sign of a flawed economy. It also reveals a deeper emotional and psychological issue. Being over educated and underemployed causes significant emotional trauma, including anxiety, depression and hopelessness.
This emotional toll is further complicated by societal shifts such as the “lying flat” movement and the rise of “full time children” in China.
These trends challenge traditional markers of success and redefine family expectations, adding another layer to the psychological complexities faced by the younger generation. The impact can be long-lasting, leading to a less productive and innovative workforce.
Weaknesses in the education system
Despite rapid expansion in higher education, a disconnect exists between university curricula and job market needs.
Programs often favour theory over practical skills, leaving graduates ill-equipped for work. For example, engineering students might focus on equations and theories but miss out on real-world applications such as internships.
Overqualified candidates flood the jobs market, forcing many to return to study. Shutterstock
Additionally, the market faces a glut of overqualified candidates, especially in the technology, finance and healthcare sectors. This imbalance drives many towards further studies.
In 2023, a total of 4.74 million students took the postgraduate entrance exam, a staggering 135% increase on the 2.01 million test takers in 2017. This cycle exacerbates youth unemployment and underemployment.
The wider impact
The ripple effect of China’s youth unemployment crisis is not to be underestimated. Drawing on warnings from UNICEF, high unemployment rates can lead to civil unrest, especially in nations with a large youth population.
The Chinese Communist Party has long maintained its authoritarian approach by securing a social licence based on economic stability and prosperity.
If rising youth unemployment erodes this licence by fostering political disengagement or radicalisation, China could experience a significant internal power shift.
In a globally connected world, such turmoil could spill over into international relations. Civic unrest can make a country less stable and thus less attractive to foreign investment, especially among nations with close economic ties to China.
Such an internal upheaval also threatens to destabilise supply chains globally, given China’s pivotal role in global supply chains.
Historical examples such as the Arab Spring and Brexit show internal dissatisfaction and social unrest can have ripple effects on a country’s international relations.
The Arab Spring led to the overthrow of multiple governments, created regional instability, influenced global oil prices, and necessitated the resetting of foreign policy by Western countries.
Instability in Britain caused by Brexit led to changes in foreign policy. Shutterstock
While youth unemployment is a global dilemma, the extent of the problem in China and its potential broader impact on interconnected economies means we can’t afford to ignore it.
What can China do to solve the problem?
China can find policy inspiration from successful initiatives in other countries, such as Germany’s dual vocational training system. This system ensures students are both academically prepared and practically skilled, better aligning education with labour market demands.
Addressing the urban/rural divide is equally crucial. By offering financial incentives including tax breaks and grants, China could promote job growth in rural areas. Australia and the United States have adopted similar models to attract healthcare workers to less populated regions.
China also needs to do something to reduce the emotional toll of chronic unemployment which worsens the longer graduates are out of work. Post-COVID, the issue is exacerbated, with 40% of Chinese youth reported to be susceptible to mental health challenges.
This is where mental health services such as those available in Australia that are tailored to young people could help. Besides benefiting the individual, these programs contribute to a more engaged, productive workforce essential for national well being.
The precarious nature of the gig economy can further deepen the unemployment crisis. Some European countries such as France and the Netherlands consider gig workers employees and offer social security benefits. A similar model could be implemented in China, providing benefits such as health insurance and retirement plans.
Finally, the scale and complexity of youth unemployment requires a multi-pronged approach that extends beyond national borders.
Countries should actively share successful employment strategies and cooperate on international initiatives to create job opportunities for youth. Collaboration is the key to developing a globally stable, productive young workforce.
Investing in young people isn’t just good policy. It’s a moral imperative for global stability and shared prosperity.
Grossi at the meeting at IAEA headquarters in Austria (Image: IAEA)
Member states of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) now owe more than EUR200 million (USD214 million), and Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi has warned that unless payments are made, then in a month's time "we will run out of money ... I will not be able to pay salaries or for the lights ... we will grind to a halt".
Before getting on to the substance of his statement to the IAEA board - covering issues including the on-going work in Ukraine and Fukushima and the new Atoms4Food initiative - Grossi said he had to start with the urgent finance situation because he found it "contradictory ... that we talk about so many important things when I don't know whether I'm going to be able to open the shop in one month".
He said that 44% of member states were in arrears "including the major donors" and he said what made it even more frustrating was that he had been in touch with the United Nations Secretariat in New York and with other agencies and global institutions and "no one is in a situation like us".
"So we need commitments soon so we can continue doing what we are supposed to be doing," he added at the start of a week-long IAEA board of governors gathering in Vienna, Austria. He thanked the US ambassador for allowing "us to use some money in a creative way, to make it for this month ... I hope that others can do that as well. But the real thing, the fundamental thing, is that we cannot continue to say that we support this agency when we don't pay for its activity. It's as simple as that".
The director general said that the only time there had been a similar situation for the IAEA was nearly 30 years ago, in 1995, which had triggered discussions and proposals and led to a "very complicated situation ... so I really hope that we will be able to avoid any such situation now - as you can imagine, it's very difficult for me to plan ahead when I don't know if I'm going to be able to pay salaries in one month".
"So I count on your support and I count on that when we say that we support the agency we really do," he said.
The board of governors of the IAEA's role includes examining and making recommendations to the General Conference - which takes place later this month - on the IAEA's financial statements, programme and budget.
Governors briefed on IAEA's work
Fukushima Daiichi ALPs water release: Grossi said that the IAEA continues to work to ensure that relevant international safety standards are applied to sampling of the treated water before release and said that it had been monitoring the seawater since the release began on 24 August. The IAEA provides continuous live data on the release of the treated water and Grossi told the board that its monitoring has confirmed levels of tritium in the discharged water and seawater were below Japan's operational limit.
Ukraine: There have been 53 IAEA missions carried out to Ukraine's five nuclear sites over the past year. He highlighted the work of the IAEA experts at Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which has been under Russian military control for a year and a half. Since he established the first permanent team at the plant a year ago, there have been ten rotations of staff. He told the 35-member IAEA board that "it is the increase of military activity" around that plant "that worries us the most". As well as its work to ensure the safety and security of nuclear facilities, the IAEA has also provided technical assistance in the country following the flooding caused by the Kakhovka dam's destruction, he said.
Iran: The director general updated the board on verification and monitoring in Iran, noting the joint statement by the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran and the IAEA in March: "Of course, our work with our colleagues from the Islamic Republic of Iran continues ... I hope to do better, and our Iranian colleagues know that. So, we will continue working together, trying to go faster and better and deeper in this important and indispensable area."
Atoms4Food: Grossi said this new initiative is aimed at supporting member states in increasing food production, food safety, agricultural planning and nutrition programming, using nuclear and isotopic techniques. He also referenced progress on the IAEA's Rays of Hope initiative, which has widened access to cancer care in Benin, Chad, Keny, Malawi and Niger as well as Botswana, which opened its first public radiotherapy centre. There had also been progress, he said, with the NUTEC plastics initiative and the Zoonotic Disease Integrated Action initiative, which is aimed at helping avoid pandemics from diseases passing from animals to humans.
Harmonisation: Grossi also highlighted the IAEA's attempts to harmonise regulatory approaches and standardise industry approaches, "which will support the timely deployment of safe and secure small modular reactors". He also said the IAEA was opening its Nuclear Security Training and Development Centre on 3 October, "the first truly international centre of capacity building in the area of nuclear security". On gender equality initiatives, he said the IAEA's Marie Sklodowska Fellowship Programme would soon award scholarships to 200 women engaged in nuclear-related master's programmes. He added that he was on track to get to gender parity at the IAEA by 2025, having now "gone above the 43% line".Researched and written by World Nuclear News. IAEA to run out of money within weeks, Grossi warns : Regulation & Safety - World Nuclear News
FILE PHOTO: A worker arranges food packets inside a retail store in Kolkata October 24, 2013. REUTERS/Rupak De Chowdhuri/File Photo
