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The world’s carbon emissions continue to rise. But 35 countries show progress in cutting carbon
Global fossil fuel emissions are projected to rise in 2025 to a new all-time high, with all sources – coal, gas, and oil – contributing to the increase.
At the same time, our new global snapshot of carbon dioxide emissions and carbon sinks shows at least 35 countries have a plan to decarbonise. Australia, Germany, New Zealand and many others have shown statistically significant declines in fossil carbon emissions during the past decade, while their economies have continued to grow. China’s emissions have also been been growing at a much slower pace than recent trends and might even be flat by year’s end.
As world leaders and delegates meet in Brazil for the United Nations’ global climate summit, COP30, many countries that have submitted new emissions commitments to 2035 have shown increased ambition.
But unless these efforts are scaled up substantially, current global temperature trends are projected to significantly exceed the Paris Agreement target that aims to keep warming well below 2°C.
These 35 countries are now emitting less carbon dioxide even as their economies grow. Global Carbon Project 2025, CC BY-NC-NDFossil fuel emissions up again in 2025
Together with colleagues from 102 research institutions worldwide, the Global Carbon Project today releases the Global Carbon Budget 2025. This is an annual stocktake of the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide worldwide.
We also publish the major scientific advances enabling us to pinpoint the global human and natural sources and sinks of carbon dioxide with higher confidence. Carbon sinks are natural or artificial systems such as forests which absorb more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere than they release.
Global CO₂ emissions from the use of fossil fuels continue to increase. They are set to rise by 1.1% in 2025, on top of a similar rise in 2024. All fossil fuels are contributing to the rise. Emissions from natural gas grew 1.3%, followed by oil (up 1.0%) and coal (up 0.8%). Altogether, fossil fuels produced 38.1 billion tonnes of CO₂ in 2025.
Not all the news is bad. Our research finds emissions from the top emitter, China (32% of global CO₂ emissions) will increase significantly more slowly below its growth over the past decade, with a modest 0.4% increase. Emissions from India (8% of global) are projected to increase by 1.4%, also below recent trends.
However, emissions from the United States (13% of global) and the European Union (6% of global) are expected to grow above recent trends. For the US, a projected growth of 1.9% is driven by a colder start to the year, increased liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, increased coal use, and higher demand for electricity.
EU emissions are expected to grow 0.4%, linked to lower hydropower and wind output due to weather. This led to increased electricity generation from LNG. Uncertainties in currently available data also include the possibility of no growth or a small decline.
Fossil fuel emissions hit a new high in 2025, but the growth rate is slowing and there are encouraging signs from countries cutting emissions. Global Carbon Project 2025, CC BY-NC-NDDrop in land use emissions
In positive news, net carbon emissions from changes to land use such as deforestation, degradation and reforestation have declined over the past decade. They are expected to produce 4.1 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide in 2025 down from the annual average of 5 billion tonnes over the past decade. Permanent deforestation remains the largest source of emissions. This figure also takes into account the 2.2 billion tonnes of carbon soaked up by human-driven reforestation annually.
Three countries – Brazil, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo – contribute 57% of global net land-use change CO₂ emissions.
When we combine the net emissions from land-use change and fossil fuels, we find total global human-caused emissions will reach 42.2 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide in 2025. This total has grown 0.3% annually over the past decade, compared with 1.9% in the previous one (2005–14).
Carbon sinks largely stagnant
Natural carbon sinks in the ocean and terrestrial ecosystems remove about half of all human-caused carbon emissions. But our new data suggests these sinks are not growing as we would expect.
The ocean carbon sink has been relatively stagnant since 2016, largely because of climate variability and impacts from ocean heatwaves.
The land CO₂ sink has been relatively stagnant since 2000, with a significant decline in 2024 due to warmer El Niño conditions on top of record global warming. Preliminary estimates for 2025 show a recovery of this sink to pre-El Niño levels.
Since 1960, the negative effects of climate change on the natural carbon sinks, particularly on the land sink, have suppressed a fraction of the full sink potential. This has left more CO₂ in the atmosphere, with an increase in the CO₂ concentration by an additional 8 parts per million. This year, atmospheric CO₂ levels are expected to reach just above 425 ppm.
Tracking global progress
Despite the continued global rise of carbon emissions, there are clear signs of progress towards lower-carbon energy and land use in our data.
There are now 35 countries that have reduced their fossil carbon emissions over the past decade, while still growing their economy. Many more, including China, are shifting to cleaner energy production. This has led to a significant slowdown of emissions growth.
Existing policies supporting national emissions cuts under the Paris Agreement are projected to lead to global warming of 2.8°C above preindustrial levels by the end of this century.
This is an improvement over the previous assessment of 3.1°C, although methodological changes also contributed to the lower warming projection. New emissions cut commitments to 2035, for those countries that have submitted them, show increased mitigation ambition.
This level of expected mitigation falls still far short of what is needed to meet the Paris Agreement goal of keeping warming well below 2°C.
At current levels of emissions, we calculate that the remaining global carbon budget – the carbon dioxide still able to be emitted before reaching specific global temperatures (averaged over multiple years) – will be used up in four years for 1.5°C (170 gigatonnes remaining), 12 years for 1.7°C (525 Gt) and 25 years for 2°C (1,055 Gt).
Falling short
Our improved and updated global carbon budget shows the relentless global increase of fossil fuel CO₂ emissions. But it also shows detectable and measurable progress towards decarbonisation in many countries.
The recovery of the natural CO₂ sinks is a positive finding. But large year-to-year variability shows the high sensitivity of these sinks to heat and drought.
Overall, this year’s carbon report card shows we have fallen short, again, of reaching a global peak in fossil fuel use. We are yet to begin the rapid decline in carbon emissions needed to stabilise the climate.![]()
Pep Canadell, Chief Research Scientist, CSIRO Environment; Executive Director, Global Carbon Project, CSIRO; Clemens Schwingshackl, Senior Researcher in Climate Science, Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich; Corinne Le Quéré, Royal Society Research Professor of Climate Change Science, University of East Anglia; Glen Peters, Senior Researcher, Center for International Climate and Environment Research - Oslo; Judith Hauck, Helmholtz Young Investigator group leader and deputy head, Marine Biogeosciences section at the Alfred Wegener Institute, Universität Bremen; Julia Pongratz, Professor of Physical Geography and Land Use Systems, Department of Geography, Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich; Mike O'Sullivan, Lecturer in Mathematics and Statistics, University of Exeter; Pierre Friedlingstein, Chair, Mathematical Modelling of Climate, University of Exeter, and Robbie Andrew, Senior Researcher, Center for International Climate and Environment Research - Oslo
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
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The LA fires have prompted a reckoning for the insurance industry – Australian premiums could soar as a result
A series of wildfires in Los Angeles County have caused widespread devastation in California, including at least 24 deaths and the destruction of more than 12,000 homes and structures. Thousands of residents have been evacuated, and the danger isn’t over yet.
Some estimates have put the cost of the damage and economic loss at between A$400 billion and A$450 billion, of which only A$32 billion is insured.
This is a stark illustration of the insurance protection gap – the difference between insured and uninsured losses. As California rebuilds, it means the bill for uninsured losses will fall on the property owners themselves and public funds.
These catastrophic fires should ring alarm bells in Australia, where global ripple effects are likely to force up our own insurance premiums. Most importantly, we must grapple with and prepare for the grim prospect of our own similar disaster.
Uninsurable homes
California’s insurance protection gap has grown as the state experiences increasingly devastating wildfires year-on-year.
In response to growing risk, escalating insurance claims, and rising reinsurance and construction costs, at least a dozen of the largest property insurers, making up 80% of the Californian market, have withdrawn from offering wildfire coverage or have restricted new policies.
In March 2024, State Farm, the United States’ largest property insurer, announced it would not be renewing about 72,000 policies in selected California postcodes deemed too risky to insure for wildfire.
These included 1,626 homes in Pacific Palisades, the scene of one of the most damaging recent fires.
For insurers, it’s simply becoming too expensive to do business in California.
What are the other options?
This has led to surging demand for alternative protection options. One, the California FAIR Plan, is a state-legislated collaboration between insurers.
The FAIR plan exists to provide a wildfire policy for those who have had policies refused by other insurance companies. But it’s a deliberately “bare-bones” policy.
Homeowners who want cover for additional structures, for theft and liability, or for other perils need to buy an additional top-up.
Residential payouts are capped at US$3 million (A$4.8 million), leaving many people underinsured.
Demand for the California FAIR Plan has skyrocketed since 2019, up 164%.
This increased demand for protection and the billions of dollars in loss we’ve just seen have raised concerns these wildfires may bankrupt California’s insurer of last resort.
The insurance protection gap is not unique to California. Some 15% of Australian households already face extreme insurance stress – a situation in which it costs four weeks or more of pretax income to buy an insurance policy.
Insurance for insurers
Premiums in Australia may soar even higher after the LA wildfires. Here’s why.
To cover large-scale losses like the 2022 floods in Australia, insurance companies buy a reinsurance policy in the global market. Essentially, they take out their own large insurance policies to help pay out the mass claims after a disaster.
The cost of global reinsurance capital goes up around the world as risk rises, losses increase, and the costs of reconstruction rise. Reinsurance payments for wildfire in California will therefore create a ripple effect in all insurance markets.
The global reinsurance market isn’t the only thing likely to push premiums higher in Australia. There’s also our own climate uncertainty and increasing risk of disaster.
Future extreme weather and the losses it may cause are becoming harder to predict. Where uncertainty rises, so do premiums, as insurers and reinsurers increase their capital reserving for potential losses.
Alarmingly, California’s crisis is a reminder that wildfires are not just a problem in rural areas or on the fringes of cities. Furthermore, these losses can even occur in winter, not just during the “wildfire season”.
A timely warning
Australia may have been fortunate enough to avoid a catastrophic citywide fire so far. But the intensification of bushfire seasons could ultimately create a similar insurance crisis here.
We’ve had our own sobering warnings in the past.
The 2003 Canberra bushfires destroyed more than 500 homes in suburban areas. In 2021, the Wooroloo fire destroyed 86 homes on Perth’s northeastern fringe.
In 2019, the Gospers Mountain mega-blaze came dangerously close to advancing on Sydney’s urban heart. A timely southerly wind change held it back.
It pays to check your coverage
What are the implications of this disaster for Australian insurance policyholders? Are there any meaningful actions we can take?
First, insured Australians should check what their policy covers and what is excluded. Greater clarification over exclusions was recommended in a recent parliamentary inquiry into the 2022 floods.
Meanwhile, policyholders should review the terms and conditions in their product disclosure statement (PDS). If you’re unsure about what a particular policy covers, contact your insurer prior to renewal.
Beyond checking or upgrading coverage, Australians can take steps to make their homes more bushfire resilient.
Last year, the Resilient Building Council partnered with the federal government to launch a free app homeowners can use to assess their fire resilience and earn premium reductions from participating insurers by making improvements.
Above all, Australians need to be aware that under a changing climate, we may be more at risk from fire than we realise, even in our biggest cities.![]()
Paula Jarzabkowski, Professor in Strategic Management, The University of Queensland; Katie Meissner, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, The University of Queensland; Rosie Gallagher, Postdoctoral research fellow, UQ Business School, The University of Queensland, and Tyler Riordan, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, The University of Queensland
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
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Is the climate conducive for a change?
- Too good to be true: The United Nations Climate Change Conference 2015 (COP 21) comes across a goody goody deal for all nations from developed to developing, including the US, China, India and Iceland but it’s not comprehensive. While the aim is noble, who does what, when and how remains largely unlettered in order to curtail the rising temperature. It’s tougher for developing nations than the developed, for while we have to carry on development, industry being a significant key player in it; and, also cut our carbon footprint at the same time. Mostly so as majority of our huge population still lives in villages, we are still dependent on coal, thermal power and also unaware of what all the deal is about.— Pankaj Thakur, B Tech Electronics and computer science:
- Wait and watch: One good thing that comes out of COP 21 is that funds would be transferred to India but what remains to be seen is if they would put it to the intended use. While it is relatively easier for advanced nations to put regulations in practice, in developing countries the major thrust is on basic infrastructure, lifting its population above poverty level. Though the summit aims at cutting global warming, ‘how’ remains to be seen. The US and China, the most polluting countries in the world, though have pledged their support to the cause, it isn’t going to be an easy game either for them to follow the agreed guidelines. — Anil Sharma, B Sc, Biotech:
- How and when of it: Paris Climate Talks paved way for us to take responsibility for having disturbed the ecological balance and reversing it. The agreement keeps in mind the holistic view and has different expectations from countries in different stages of development. Like China is allowed to peak its industrial capacity before it joins hand with advanced countries to play a responsible part. But when and how is still fuzzy. The treaty looked good on paper but I was quite dejected reading an article today on how even if every Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) follow the norms, we still wouldn’t be able to curtail global warming as aimed. — Sarthak Negi, B Tech Mechanical engineering:
- A tall order: Global warming is a real challenge and you see not even the half of the world is bothered about it. Advanced nations and its citizens who have been there and seen all are now acting in tandem to protect the earth but look at the scene in India or many African countries. While our indigenous ways helped preserving nature and maintaining balance, modern ways of the world have played havoc with the traditional lifestyle. In race to have a good life, how a country like India is going to fall in line of the guidelines of (COP 21) seems a tall order. — Rajinder Saini, M Sc Physics. Source: http://www.tribuneindia.com/
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improve global economic governing make them more representative and to reflect the "growing weight" of the BRICS and other developing nations, adding that the leadership selection of international financial institutions should be open, transparent and merit-based. Additionally, the BRICS nations would explore the possibility of strengthening their cooperation between their state-owned firms, and promote the dialogues among the small and medium-sized companies. They would also consider to expand their cooperation to more sectors including public diplomacy, anti-corruption, drug control, youth exchanges, tourism, energy and sports. Also in the statement, the leaders of the BRICS countries voiced their opinions on a series of international hotspots including peace in the Middle East, Iranian nuclear issue, and the situation in Syria, Mali, Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Afghanistan. Cooperative Partnership between BRICS & Africa: Also on Wednesday, the leaders of the BRICS members and some African countries, after the summit, discussed their cooperation at the first BRICS Leaders-Africa Dialogue Forum, which is under the theme "Unlocking Africa's potential: BRICS and Africa cooperation on infrastructure." While addressing the forum, Chinese President Xi Jinping said the dialogue between leaders of BRICS and African countries reflected the political will of both sides to realize equality and inclusiveness and seek common development. Xi said the Chinese government is willing to form a cooperative partnership for transnational and trans-regional infrastructure, and help the African nations with the consultation, planning, feasibility research and project design of promoting interconnections and resource censor. He also promised to help Africa to train 300 managing and technical personnel specialized in the field of infrastructure, and encourage Chinese enterprises and financial institutions to participate in the building and operating the infrastructure. The Chinese leader also reaffirmed China's promise to give zero-tariff treatment to 97 percent of the tariff items of exports to China from the least developed nations having diplomatic ties with China. Other leaders of the BRICS nations said the BRICS countries would like to forge a cooperative partnership with Africa, and help Africa in constructing its infrastructure. The African leaders said Africa needs to strengthen its infrastructure, promote integration and industrialization, and lift over-all competitiveness and the capacity for sustainable development. The African nations are willing to set up with the BRICS members a cooperative partnership that highlights mutual support, mutual benefit and win-win results, said the leaders. Source: China.org.cn, Putin meets with Indian Prime Minister Singh "on the


