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– credit Alexandre DebièveWhat the RBA wants Australians to do next to fight inflation – or risk more rate hikes
Meg Elkins, RMIT University
When the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board voted unanimously to lift the cash rate to 3.85% on Tuesday, the decision was driven by one overriding concern. It wants to stop the rising cost of living from becoming entrenched.
For some, like self-funded retirees, the rate rise was good news. Higher interest means their savings and term deposits will earn more. But for many others, including first home buyers who might have stretched themselves just to get a foot into the housing market, it was a very bad day.
RBA Governor Michele Bullock acknowledged that, saying:
I know this is not the news that Australians with mortgages want to hear, but it is the right thing for the economy.
She warned the alternative – letting inflation keep rising – would be even harder for more Australians.
So what’s the psychology behind the RBA raising rates now and leaving the door open to further hikes if needed? And what does the central bank hope Australians will do in response?
The price squeeze you’re feeling
There’s a striking gap between how the RBA describes the economy and how most Australians experience it.
On paper, things look healthy: unemployment is low, wages are growing.
But as Bullock acknowledged on Tuesday, the daily reality has felt very different.
The price level has gone up 20% to 25% over the last few years, and people see that every time they walk into a supermarket, or they go to the doctor, or whatever – that’s I think what’s hurting people.
That relentless price squeeze is not something you forget, even when the rate of increase starts to slow.
What’s driving inflation up?
The headline consumer price index (CPI) hit 3.8% in the year to December, well above the RBA’s target band of 2–3%. The “trimmed mean” – the underlying measure the RBA watches most closely – rose to 3.3%. Both are too high and moving in the wrong direction.
Bullock singled out three factors contributing to inflation. Each behaves differently and requires a different response.
Housing was the single largest contributor to inflation in December, up 5.5% over the year. That includes rents, which rose 3.9% (or 4.2% stripping out government rent assistance), as well as insurance, utilities, and new construction costs, which rose 3% as builders passed through higher labour and material costs.
There is an irony here. Rising interest rates are intended to cool demand, but they slow housing construction. Limited supply of housing is what’s pushing rents up in the first place.
“Durable goods” are the things we buy to last, such as cars, refrigerators, washing machines, televisions and furniture. Demand for many of those has been higher in the past year.
“Market services” are items such as restaurant meals, taxis, haircuts, gym memberships, medical appointments and holiday travel.
The RBA watches these carefully, because these are services priced by supply and demand in the domestic market. Those prices tend to be “sticky”: once they start rising, they don’t come back down easily.
Wages are also a big part of market services inflation. If the people providing those services are earning more, the cost goes up.
How rate cuts made shoppers relax
This is where the behavioural psychology gets interesting.
The RBA cut interest rates three times in 2025. Each cut sent a signal, whether intentionally or not: it’s OK to spend a bit more.
And spend we did. CommBank data shows Australians spent A$23.8 billion over the two-week Black Friday period, up 4.6% on the year before.
It’s a cautionary tale about “rational expectations”. Each rate cut potentially fuelled the belief that more would follow.
If people feel like they can afford to spend, then they spend. Businesses, sensing demand, may raise their prices to match. That’s exactly the self-fulfilling dynamic central banks worry about.
The 3 ways the RBA hopes we’ll react
When prices go up, as they have been, workers ask for bigger wage rises to keep up. To pay higher wages, businesses lift prices to protect their profit margins. Together, that can create a “wage-price spiral” that becomes very hard to break.
The RBA will be hoping Australians respond to this rate rise in three ways:
spending less
saving more
not asking for big wage rises (although they’d never phrase it that way).
RBA Governor Michele Bullock described raising interest rates as “a very blunt instrument” to bring inflation down, and noted setting rates is “not a science. It’s a bit of an art, really […] We’ve just got to respond as best we can.”
The RBA can’t undo the price rises that have already happened. It can only try to slow down further increases.![]()
Meg Elkins, Associate Professor in Economics, RMIT University
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Silver and gold hit record highs – then crashed. Before joining the rush, you need to know this
Zlaťáky.cz/Pexels, CC BY
Angel Zhong, RMIT University and Jason Tian, Swinburne University of TechnologyThe start of 2026 has seen gold and silver surge to record highs – only to crash on Friday.
Gold prices peaked above US$5,500 (A$7,900) per ounce for the first time on Thursday, well above previous highs. But by the end of Friday, it had dropped to around US$5068 (A$7,282).
Silver had been making gains even faster than gold. It hit more than US$120 (A$172) per ounce last week, marking one of its strongest runs in decades, before crashing on Friday to US$98.50 (A$141.50).
So what’s behind those surges and falls? And what should everyday investors know about the risks of investing in precious metals right now?
Why gold has been hitting new highs
Gold is the classic safe haven: an asset people buy to protect their savings when worried about financial risks.
With international political tensions rising, trade war threats, shifting signals about where interest rates are heading and a potential changing world order, investors are seeking assets that feel stable when everything else looks shaky.
Friday’s crash in gold and silver was sparked by financial markets reacting to early news of Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as chair of the US Federal Reserve. The US central bank plays a key role in global financial stability.
Central banks around the world have been buying gold at a rapid pace, reinforcing its reputation as a place to park value during periods of uncertainty.
But it’s not just big institutions moving the market. In Australia and overseas, retail investors – individuals buying and selling smaller amounts for themselves – have played a part too.
Those individuals have been increasingly treating gold, silver and other precious metals as a hedge against so much uncertainty, as well as a momentum play – trying to buy in to keep up with others.
As prices have trended upward, more everyday investors have bought in, especially through gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which make it simple to gain exposure without storing physical gold bullion.
What’s been driving silver’s surge
While gold was grabbing headlines for much of 2025, silver has been the real showstopper. Before Friday’s fall, the metal had surged more than 60% in just the past month, far outpacing gold’s still impressive run of around 30%.
Unlike gold, silver has a split personality. Industrial uses are driving up demand for silver. It’s critical for clean energy technologies including solar panels, electric vehicles (EVs), and semiconductors.
This dual appeal – as a safe haven, but also as an in-demand industrial commodity – is drawing investors who see multiple reasons for prices to keep climbing.
Every solar panel contains about 20 grams of silver. The solar industry consumes nearly 30% of total global demand for silver.
EVs also use 25–50 grams each, and AI data centres need silver for semiconductors.
The kicker? The silver market has run a supply deficit for five consecutive years. We’re consuming more than we’re mining, and most silver comes as a byproduct of other metals. You can’t simply open more silver mines.
Individual buyers have piled into silver
One of Australia’s most popular online investment platforms for retail investors is CommSec, with around 3 million customers.
Bloomberg tracking of CommSec trades shows how much retail purchases of silver ETFs in particular have spiked higher in the past year.
Over the past year, gold ETF trades on CommSec grew 47%, with cumulative net buying reaching A$158 million. That reflects gold’s established role in portfolios.
Yet despite attracting slightly lower total investment overall at A$104 million, silver trading activity exploded by far more: it’s been 1,000% higher than the year before.
This means retail investors made far more frequent, smaller trades in silver. This is classic momentum-chasing behaviour, as everyday investors piled into an asset showing dramatic price gains.
The pattern is unmistakable: while gold remains the anchor, silver has become the speculative play.
Its lower per-ounce price, industrial demand narrative, and social media buzz make it particularly accessible to retail investors seeking exposure to the precious metals rally, at a much lower price than gold.
The risks every investor needs to know
The data shows Australian retail investors have been buying as prices rise. But this “fear of missing out” approach comes with serious risks.
Volatility cuts both ways. From February 2025 to just before Friday’s sharp drop, the price of silver had surged 269%. But even before that fall, silver’s spectacular gain had come with 36% “annualised volatility” (which measures how much a stock price varies over one year). That was nearly double gold’s 20% volatility over the same period.
What does that mean in practice? As we’ve just seen, what goes up fast can come down quickly too.
Buying high is dangerous. When retail investors pile in after major price increases, they often end up buying near the top. Professional investors and central banks have been accumulating gold and silver for years, at much lower prices.
No income, higher risk. Unlike shares or bonds, metals don’t pay dividends or interest. Your entire return depends on prices rising further from already elevated levels. And as the past few days have shown, the potential for sharp drawdowns is substantial.
Keep it modest. Financial advisers typically recommend precious metals comprise 5–15% of a diversified portfolio. After such extraordinary price volatility, that guideline matters more than ever.
Disclaimer: This article provides general information only and is not intended as financial advice. All investments carry risk.![]()
Angel Zhong, Professor of Finance, RMIT University and Jason Tian, Senior Lecturer, Swinburne University of Technology
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
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Australian economic growth is solid but not spectacular. Rate cuts are off the table
Stella Huangfu, University of Sydney
Australia’s economy grew by a softer-than-expected 0.4% in the September quarter, slowing from 0.6% growth in the June quarter. It confirms the recovery is tracking forward but without strong momentum.
Still, figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth was at a two-year high of 2.1%. That’s just above the Reserve Bank’s estimate of long-term trend growth of 2.0%.
The September quarter national accounts was the final major data release before the Reserve Bank’s meeting on 8–9 December.
The GDP result is steady enough to reassure the Reserve Bank the economy is not slipping backwards, while recent inflation data show domestic price pressures — especially in services — remain elevated. Together, the signals point clearly to a hold on interest rates next week.
All four major banks expect rates to remain on hold for many months, while financial markets on Wednesday were pricing in an 85% chance of a rate rise next year.
Across-the-board strength, led by IT
A key feature of the September quarter is the breadth of domestic growth.
In earlier quarters, much of the expansion came from the public sector — particularly government consumption and infrastructure spending — while private demand was subdued. This quarter marks a clear shift: private demand was the main driver, led by a strong lift in business investment, steady household consumption and continued public investment.
Domestic final demand rose solidly, with contributions from all major components — signalling improving confidence among both businesses and households and a more balanced base for growth than we saw earlier in the year.
Private investment led the gains, rising 2.9% – the strongest quarterly increase since March 2021.
Business investment in machinery and equipment jumped 7.6%, boosted by major data-centre projects in New South Wales and Victoria. IT-related machinery investment hit a record A$2.8 billion, double the June quarter, and aviation-related purchases also jumped. The Bureau of Statistics said in a statement:
The rise in machinery and equipment investment reflects the ongoing expansions of data centres. This is likely due to firms looking to support growth in artificial intelligence and cloud computing capabilities.
Household consumption rose 0.5%, but this was driven more by spending on essentials rather than discretionary items. A cold winter, reduced government rebates and a harsh flu season lifted demand for utilities and for health services.
Public investment grew 3.0%, after three quarterly declines. State and local public corporations led the rise through renewable-energy and water-infrastructure projects.
Coal exports are up
External conditions weakened this quarter as imports grew faster than exports.
Goods exports rose 1.3%, helped by a rebound in coal shipments and strong overseas demand for beef and citrus. Services exports were flat, as a fall in spending by overseas students offset a modest recovery in short-term tourism from China, Japan and South Korea.
Goods imports rose 2.1%, driven by demand for intermediate goods — especially diesel — and capital goods, mainly the data-centre-related equipment.
Companies drew down on inventories during the quarter, which acts as a drag on growth.
Households are saving more
Households remain central to the outlook. They are on firmer financial footing but still spending cautiously. The household saving ratio rose from 6.0% to 6.4%, helped by higher compensation of employees.
Economic growth per person (known as GDP per capita) was flat this quarter, but up 0.4% over the year. After several negative quarters, living standards appear to have stopped falling, though improvements remain modest.
Overall, households are in better shape financially but remain hesitant — a pattern that supports stability, not a consumption-led surge.
A steady result, but not enough to shift the rate outlook
Some parts of this quarter’s outcome — including the lift in machinery and aviation-related spending — are unlikely to be repeated.
For the interest rate outlook, however, the key issue remains inflation. Price pressures are still above the Reserve Bank’s target band, and services inflation has been slower to ease than anticipated. The Reserve Bank now expects a more gradual return to the 2–3% target band.
After three rate cuts earlier this year — the most recent in August — markets were expecting at least one more rate cut. That view has shifted. Sticky services inflation and a slower forecast decline mean expectations of further cuts have faded.
A steadier footing, but risks remain
The September quarter shows an economy on a steady, though still moderate, footing. Domestic demand is broad-based, investment is strong, and households have more income support — even if they remain cautious.
But this is not yet a turning point. Inflation is still above target. As Australia enters 2026, the Reserve Bank remains firmly on hold — but alert to the possibility that, if inflation stays above 3%, the next adjustment may need to be upward rather than downward.![]()
Stella Huangfu, Associate Professor, School of Economics, University of Sydney
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
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