Birth rates are declining in most of the world, including Australia. Here’s why that really matters

Liz Allen, Australian National University

Birth rates have been declining worldwide since the peak of the post-second world war baby boom. Birth rates have now reached below replacement in most of the world, including Australia. Put simply, populations on average aren’t replacing themselves.

Everyone from Elon Musk to Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, to the pope have opinions on declining total fertility (or birth) rates – the average number of births per woman.

Overpopulation has dominated popular discourse since the 1960s. While fears of overpopulation remain, especially tied to immigration, concerns have shifted to depopulation and the related economic and national security issues.

Overpopulation fears to depopulation woes

In his 1968 book The Population Bomb, Paul Ehrlich warned the 1970s would bring “people, people, people, people” and an overpopulation “cancer” resulting in famine and war. Human extinction was imminent, we were warned.

Overpopulation-associated human extinction has not come to be.

The global total fertility rate has more than halved since 1950. Average birth rates for OECD countries now sit at 1.46 births per woman, well below the 2.1 required for generational replacement.

World population decline is projected by the mid-2080s. China is now in its fourth year of population decline. South Korea has been declining since 2019 with its near-global record low birth rates. Germany has seen deaths outnumber births since 1972. Japan, Greece, Italy, Cuba and Thailand are also among those in the depopulation club.

Without immigration, the United Kingdom would also see population decline, with deaths outnumbering births. Australia is about a generation away from the same fate. Immigration controls have seen depopulation in Canada.

Birth rates a solution to the ageing ‘problem’

Enormous advancements since the 1950s, mostly in health and medical technologies like immunisation, mean humans are living longer. We’re also having fewer children, and as a result populations are ageing.

An ageing population is a mark of success and human ingenuity, but economic systems tend to view ageing societies as problematic.

Workers and working-aged people are essential to maintain a healthy economy. Individual income taxpayers are the top source of federal government revenue in Australia. Too few people of working age replacing those retiring can seriously undermine economic wellbeing, forcing governments to do more service provision with less financial resources.

Below-replacement fertility and its implications for government bottom lines have resulted in Australian politicians calling on Australians to have more babies. “Have one for mum, one for dad, and one for the country”, treasurer Peter Costello famously said in 2004.

In 2020, former prime minister Tony Abbott suggested the wrong kind of women were having children, calling on “middle class” women to have more. Talking the budget, treasurer Jim Chalmers in 2024 said it would be “better if birth rates were higher”.

Human catastrophe of low birth rates

People are increasingly saying the choice to have children is constrained by external factors. Worldwide, around one-in-five surveyed by the United Nations said fears about the future would or has resulted in them having fewer children than they wanted.

Housing affordability, economic stability, gender inequality and climate change present insurmountable barriers for having a much-wanted family.

The lack of choice to have children in below-replacement regions, I’d argue is indeed a human catastrophe. How is it that we’ve allowed society to become so hostile that children are out of the question for so many who want them?

The intergenerational bargain is well and truly corrupted.

We are confronted with the tough question of who will care for us with the children gone.

Can a human catastrophe be avoided?

The burden of having a family falls on working-aged people, especially women.

A baby bonus or one-off payment is unlikely to change people’s minds and increase the total fertility rate; such payments merely change timing. Instead, increasing total fertility rates requires a comprehensive suite of measures from a policy perspective.

Tackling the big four big domains of housing, the economy, gender and climate encompass issues such as

  • secure, affordable and appropriate housing
  • employment and income security
  • accessible childcare
  • social and workplace gender equality
  • climate change action.

People of childbearing age aren’t being hedonistic when making family and fertility decisions. They’re not thinking about themselves, they’re actually thinking about the future world and weighing what that might look like for prospective children.

Loss of hope among people of childbearing age, including fears of being left behind, contribute to overall concerns about an insecure future.

Not only is the human catastrophe of low births rates reflecting more widespread concerns, such as insecurity, it could also be undermining social cohesion.

Rather than an exploding bomb of overpopulation, the world faces an economic and social implosion due to lacking substantive supports necessary to help raise much-wanted children.

Surely it’s beyond time we ask people what they actually need – and give it to them.The Conversation

Liz Allen, Demographer, POLIS Centre for Social Policy Research, Australian National University

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One street tree can boost Sydney house prices by $30,000 – or cost $70,000 if it’s too close: new study

A single street tree can potentially increase an average Sydney house price by A$30,000, our new research shows. This echoes past research showing street trees not only help boost property prices, but offer other benefits, from improved scenery and privacy to increased shade.

But there’s a catch. Our analysis, published in the international Cities journal, also found that if a street tree is too close, it can actually reduce the selling price by more than $70,000.

Our study looked at more than 1,500 house sales in the City of Sydney from 2021 to 2024, then matched those with detailed council data on nearly 50,000 public trees.

After accounting for other, better known price factors – number of bedrooms, bathrooms, car parking, land size, proximity to the CBD, transport, schools and more – we found trees can be associated with higher house prices. But that price boost only occurred when the trees were about 10–20 metres from a home, such as across the street or near the frontage.

In contrast, trees planted too close – within a 10m radius from the centre of the property – were actually associated with lower sale prices.

This matters beyond Sydney. Every Australian capital city has set tree-planting goals, such as the City of Sydney’s target for 23% tree canopy cover in 2030 and 27% in 2050. Yet many will struggle to meet them, with some facing resistance from residents. Our research explains why tree placement will be crucial if we ever want to meet those targets.

What’s new about this research

Past studies in Perth, as well as several cities in the United States and Canada, have consistently shown trees tend to increase property values.

But what we didn’t know before now was where the benefits stop and the costs begin.

Our study identifies a clear “not in my backyard” (NIMBY) boundary, of around 10m, within which street trees’ economic value turns negative.

That finding is important, because that’s when resident resistance to street trees is likely to be strongest.

This is a first study of its kind to quantify the economic value of public trees by taking advantage of using individual tree-level data managed by the City of Sydney from 2023.

It allowed us to measure tree effects at the finest possible distance from the centre of property: under 10m, 10–20m, 20–50m, 50–100m, and beyond 100m. This is something previous studies could not do when relying on satellite or street imagery.

How tree location affects price

We controlled for all the usual factors that influence house prices, including property features and location amenities. This meant we could measure the impact of trees after accounting for everything else.

We found that distance matters. In dollar terms, one additional tree within 10m of the centre of a property reduced its value by 2.96%. An average home sold in the City of Sydney from 2021 to 2024 was worth $2,613,000 – so that reduction worked out to be a $70,290 cost.

Given the average lot size of 176m² in the City of Sydney, the distance from the centre of an average property to its boundary is typically about 8m.

But if a tree was located 10-20 metres away, it increased the value by about 1.16%, worth an average of $30,310.

If the tree was further than 20 metres away, we found no price difference.

The new study identified a clear ‘not in my backyard’ (NIMBY) boundary, within which street trees’ can actually hit house prices. Belle Co/Pexels, CC BY

This show a clear proximity effect. Trees being too close to a house are a cost risk; trees at a moderate distance are a valued feature; and trees further away are neutral and just part of the neighbourhood amenity.

Our study used more precise data than ever before to calculate the distance between street trees and the centre of each property.

But future research could take this further by measuring the distance from each tree to the house. It could also incorporate resident surveys to better understand how people perceive and value trees near their homes.

Why trees being too close matters

Street trees like these are much loved – but can have hidden downsides, such as damage from roots or branches. Jo Quinn/Unsplash, CC BY

It makes sense that people may see trees close to home as a financial risk.

Trees can cause structural damage to buildings and infrastructure, increase fire hazards, and safety concerns from falling branches.

Rather than dismissing residents’ concerns as NIMBYism, they should be seen as rational market responses to maintenance risks, structural damage, and amenity loss.

Planting plans need resident support

Every Australian capital city has adopted “urban forest” or tree planting strategies, many of them aiming to hit 30-40% canopy cover in coming decades. For example, the City of Melbourne’s target is 40% canopy cover by 2040, while Brisbane City Council is aiming for 50% shade for residential footpaths and bikeways by 2031.

However, there are doubts about whether many of those targets will be met.

There are good reasons for governments to invest in urban trees, as they can protect us from extreme heat and help as a response to climate change. But resistance from homeowners can undermine these policies.

Our research shows residents are more likely to welcome street trees if they’re planted not too close, and not too far, from their homes.

* Thanks to the coauthors of this paper, Qiulin Ke and Bin Chi from University College London.The Conversation

Song Shi, Associate Professor, Property Economics, University of Technology Sydney

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A new ad campaign is pushing Australians to use less petrol. Has this happened before?

David Lee, UNSW Sydney

A new federal government advertising campaign is prompting Australians to reduce their fuel consumption during the current global oil crisis.

It asks Australians to consider using their car less and offers tips to boost fuel efficiency, such as “driving smoothly” and “unloading excess weight”.

It comes soon after Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s whirlwind trip to Singapore, which makes up more than a quarter of Australia’s refined fuel imports, including more than half of our petrol, 22% of jet fuel and 15% of diesel.

However, the launch of the campaign shows the government is concerned to some degree about fuel supplies in Australia.

The federal government’s new campaign is titled ‘every little bit helps’.

So, why is this happening, are there historic precedents in Australia and what are other countries doing at the moment?

Why the concerns about fuel supply?

The campaign comes two weeks after national cabinet endorsed a four-stage National Fuel Security Plan – which mentions rationing as a final step – as global fuel supplies continue to fluctuate due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

The Strait of Hormuz is a key factor – it was tentatively re-opened after the two-week ceasefire was agreed to last week. Since then, Iran has blocked ships from passing through the strait after Israel launched a wave of strikes in Lebanon. Then on Monday, US President Donald Trump threatened to block it via the US Navy.

Even before the ceasefire, the Australian government said it had secured supplies into May and that rationing would not be needed.

But it may be necessary if there’s no lasting peace in the Middle East.

How Asian countries are responding

Asian economies are particularly dependent on oil and gas supplies from the Middle East. According to the US Energy Information Administration, 84% of crude oil shipped through the Strait of Hormuz in 2024 was bound for Asia.

Understandably, several countries have already introduced rationing or other measures:

Countries in Europe and Africa have also implemented rationing but Asian countries have been particularly affected.

Australia’s experience with fuel conservation

Australia has rationed petrol in earlier emergencies.

When the second world war broke out in September 1939, Australia only had enough petrol to last three months of normal consumption.

At first, the wartime government led by Robert Menzies encouraged Australians voluntarily to reduce their petrol consumption and promoted conversion to vehicles powered by gas from coal.

But as the fighting intensified, oil tankers which were on their way to Australia turned around because of the war, and supplies dwindled.

In June 1940, cabinet aimed to reduce consumption by 50%, a goal later reduced to 30%.

Under national security regulations, civilians were issued ration coupons limiting how much fuel a person could purchase. Non-essential driving was restricted. Public transport and essential industries were prioritised and diesel was tightly controlled for military and agricultural operations.

Even in wartime, rationing was unpopular. The issue contributed to Menzies’s near-defeat at the September 1940 election. His government was replaced the following year by a Labor government.

The end of the war did not automatically lead to the end of petrol rationing.

This was because Australia had to use US dollars to purchase most of its petrol, which were in short supply throughout the British Commonwealth. Consequently, the Chifley government continued with rationing to conserve dollars.

In June 1949, the High Court decided rationing was a matter for states – not the Commonwealth.

Australia’s next serious oil crisis came in the 1970s.

In 1973, the Organisation of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) reduced oil production and suspended deliveries to some western countries.

Like many other countries, Australia experienced “stagflation” – higher unemployment and inflation – for about a decade.

But Australia was shielded from the full reverberations because it reached about 70% sufficiency in oil through the discovery of oil and natural gas in Bass Strait.

Only in 1979, after a second oil price spike and a strike at the Caltex Refinery in Kurnell, New South Wales, was petrol rationing introduced through an “odd-even” number plate method.

Further action on fuel supply

After the 1970s oil crisis, the Hawke government sponsored legislation to allow the Governor-General to declare a formal national liquid fuel emergency.

The Liquid Fuel Emergency Act may be invoked as a last resort when a fuel shortage has national implications.

Under the act, the minister for climate change and energy can direct refineries, importers and distributors to adjust production and manage stocks.

The legislation also allows the government to implement two levels of rationing: retail and bulk.

Retail rationing involves service stations limiting how much individual motorists can buy at a time while also exempting essential users.

Bulk rationing targets large-scale distributors and wholesale customers, such as mining companies and large transport fleets.

Historic footage shows how Australians coped with fuel conservation in the past.

A reprieve, for now

Albanese’s National Fuel Security Plan mentions rationing as a final step.

Triggers include shortages threatening the operation of critical infrastructure, stockpiles being dangerously depleted and if the economy is at risk of stalling.

The wobbly ceasefire in the Middle East means Australians have been granted a reprieve. But rationing remains a possibility if hostilities resume.The Conversation

David Lee, Associate Professor of History, UNSW Sydney

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Australia’s roads are full of giant cars, and everyone pays the price. What can be done?

Milad Haghani, The University of Melbourne

You may have noticed — there’s a car-size inflation on Australian roads that some have nicknamed car “mobesity”.

Most SUVs and utes from a decade or two ago look small next to today’s models.

As we head for a fifth consecutive year of rising road deaths and what could be the worst year for pedestrian fatalities in nearly two decades, it’s time to look more closely at what this means.

We already know bigger cars cause greater impacts in collisions.

But what’s less discussed is whether driving one also changes how we drive – if larger vehicles make us feel safer inside them, do they also make us take more risks behind the wheel?

What’s driving this trend?

Four in five new cars sold in Australia are SUVs or utes – more than double the share of 20 years ago.

This isn’t purely consumer-driven.

With no domestic car manufacturing, Australia imports vehicles shaped by global production trends, many of which trickle down from United States policies that reward larger vehicles.

Two subtle US policy features explain why.

First, the “SUV loophole”: under US law, most SUVs are classified as light trucks, meaning they’re subject to less stringent fuel-efficiency and crash-safety standards than passenger cars.

Second, under US fuel economy rules, fuel-efficiency targets are adjusted based on the size of the vehicle’s “footprint” — the area between its wheels. In practice, this means larger vehicles are allowed to consume more fuel while still meeting the target.

Together, these rules have encouraged American manufacturers to build and sell heavier SUVs and utes.

Large vehicles can deliver significantly higher profit margins than small cars.

These trends have resulted in more bigger cars being driven on Australian roads.

The combination of high car ownership, years without fuel efficiency rules, and the luxury-car-tax exemption that many utes qualify for has made Australia a highly lucrative market for large, high-emission models.

Marketing has played a significant role too: in 2023, car makers invested about A$125 million in SUV and 4×4 advertising in Australia – a 29% increase from the previous year.

The dangers of bigger vehicles

There’s a physical mismatch between large and small vehicles that usually transfers the danger from the occupants of the bigger car to everyone else.

While the risks of being hit by a large SUV or ute might seem self-evident, the question is how much greater those risks are.

Research provides a clear answer.

Car-to-car collisions:

  • Collisions between large SUVs and smaller cars show occupants of a smaller vehicle face about 30% higher risk of dying or sustaining serious injury.

  • A 500kg increase in vehicle weight is linked to a 70% higher fatality risk for occupants of the lighter car.

  • For every fatal accident avoided inside a large vehicle, there are around 4.3 additional deaths among other road users.

Car-to-pedestrian and cyclist collisions:

These differences help explain why US pedestrian deaths — once on a steady decline — have climbed back to their highest level since the early 1980s.

This is while most countries have reduced pedestrian fatalities.

Bigger cars, more risk-taking?

Evidence from multiple countries suggests driving larger vehicles may lead to more confident or risk-prone behaviour:

Policy can make a difference

Taxes and size-dependant registration fees could potentially offset some of the extra costs of heavier vehicles on roads surfaces, congestion and emissions, or regulate demand.

Two measures would make a tangible difference:

Licence testing by vehicle class

Many drivers obtain their licence in a small sedan but can legally drive a two-tonne ute the next day. Yet, larger vehicles demand different manoeuvring skills, longer braking distances and greater spatial awareness.

Requiring a practical test in a vehicle of comparable size to what the driver intends to drive (or a streamlined license upgrade for an experienced driver when upsizing) would acknowledge that added responsibility.

The reform would also carry a symbolic message: driving a heavier vehicle comes with greater responsibility.

Penalties scaled to impact potential

A ute or SUV travelling 10kmh over the limit carries greater kinetic energy and longer stopping distance than a small sedan.

A tiered approach – where fines or demerit points scale with vehicle mass – would better reflect the disproportionate risk that bigger cars pose.

If Australia is serious about reducing road trauma, these are the kinds of targeted, evidence-based adjustments that should be considered.The Conversation

Milad Haghani, Associate Professor and Principal Fellow in Urban Risk and Resilience, The University of Melbourne

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What the RBA wants Australians to do next to fight inflation – or risk more rate hikes

Meg Elkins, RMIT University

When the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board voted unanimously to lift the cash rate to 3.85% on Tuesday, the decision was driven by one overriding concern. It wants to stop the rising cost of living from becoming entrenched.

For some, like self-funded retirees, the rate rise was good news. Higher interest means their savings and term deposits will earn more. But for many others, including first home buyers who might have stretched themselves just to get a foot into the housing market, it was a very bad day.

RBA Governor Michele Bullock acknowledged that, saying:

I know this is not the news that Australians with mortgages want to hear, but it is the right thing for the economy.

She warned the alternative – letting inflation keep rising – would be even harder for more Australians.

So what’s the psychology behind the RBA raising rates now and leaving the door open to further hikes if needed? And what does the central bank hope Australians will do in response?

The price squeeze you’re feeling

There’s a striking gap between how the RBA describes the economy and how most Australians experience it.

On paper, things look healthy: unemployment is low, wages are growing.

But as Bullock acknowledged on Tuesday, the daily reality has felt very different.

The price level has gone up 20% to 25% over the last few years, and people see that every time they walk into a supermarket, or they go to the doctor, or whatever – that’s I think what’s hurting people.

That relentless price squeeze is not something you forget, even when the rate of increase starts to slow.

What’s driving inflation up?

The headline consumer price index (CPI) hit 3.8% in the year to December, well above the RBA’s target band of 2–3%. The “trimmed mean” – the underlying measure the RBA watches most closely – rose to 3.3%. Both are too high and moving in the wrong direction.

Bullock singled out three factors contributing to inflation. Each behaves differently and requires a different response.

Housing was the single largest contributor to inflation in December, up 5.5% over the year. That includes rents, which rose 3.9% (or 4.2% stripping out government rent assistance), as well as insurance, utilities, and new construction costs, which rose 3% as builders passed through higher labour and material costs.

There is an irony here. Rising interest rates are intended to cool demand, but they slow housing construction. Limited supply of housing is what’s pushing rents up in the first place.

“Durable goods” are the things we buy to last, such as cars, refrigerators, washing machines, televisions and furniture. Demand for many of those has been higher in the past year.

“Market services” are items such as restaurant meals, taxis, haircuts, gym memberships, medical appointments and holiday travel.

The RBA watches these carefully, because these are services priced by supply and demand in the domestic market. Those prices tend to be “sticky”: once they start rising, they don’t come back down easily.

Wages are also a big part of market services inflation. If the people providing those services are earning more, the cost goes up.

How rate cuts made shoppers relax

This is where the behavioural psychology gets interesting.

The RBA cut interest rates three times in 2025. Each cut sent a signal, whether intentionally or not: it’s OK to spend a bit more.

And spend we did. CommBank data shows Australians spent A$23.8 billion over the two-week Black Friday period, up 4.6% on the year before.

It’s a cautionary tale about “rational expectations”. Each rate cut potentially fuelled the belief that more would follow.

If people feel like they can afford to spend, then they spend. Businesses, sensing demand, may raise their prices to match. That’s exactly the self-fulfilling dynamic central banks worry about.

The 3 ways the RBA hopes we’ll react

When prices go up, as they have been, workers ask for bigger wage rises to keep up. To pay higher wages, businesses lift prices to protect their profit margins. Together, that can create a “wage-price spiral” that becomes very hard to break.

The RBA will be hoping Australians respond to this rate rise in three ways:

  • spending less

  • saving more

  • not asking for big wage rises (although they’d never phrase it that way).

RBA Governor Michele Bullock described raising interest rates as “a very blunt instrument” to bring inflation down, and noted setting rates is “not a science. It’s a bit of an art, really […] We’ve just got to respond as best we can.”

The RBA can’t undo the price rises that have already happened. It can only try to slow down further increases.The Conversation

Meg Elkins, Associate Professor in Economics, RMIT University

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Franchise businesses have long been plagued by scandals. Domino’s is just the latest

Jenny Buchan, UNSW Sydney

The blue and red boxes with white dots are immediately recognisable as containing Domino’s pizzas. The pizza chain is Australia’s largest and is run as a franchise, with the ASX-listed public company Domino’s Pizza Enterprises holding the Australian master franchise rights.

Industry analysts IBISWorld calculate Domino’s has 4.2% of the fast food and takeaway market in Australia.

But recent reports suggest all is not well with many of the store owners, who are struggling with rising costs and declining profitability.

Troubling reports

The central issue appears to be what the federal government describes in its code of conduct as the “the imbalance of power between franchisors and franchisees”.

The Australian Financial Review has reported troubling claims in two key areas:

  • Domino’s appears to have doubled the margin on the key food ingredients it sells to franchisees and increased its advertising levy, according to a letter from store owners represented by the Australian Association of Franchisees. This could reduce their profitability

  • Domino’s Australian chief operating officer, Greg Steenson, reportedly encouraged franchisees in a presentation to take advantage of restructuring schemes that allow insolvent companies to continue to trade by negotiating repayment plans with the tax office and other creditors.

In a letter to Domino’s quoted in the report, the franchisees said their earnings have remained flat for 15 years, and have not kept up with inflation.

A long history of disputes

A former franchisee told a parliamentary inquiry into the franchising model the margin squeeze meant

franchisees can be ripped off by [Domino’s Pizza Enterprises] when forced to buy supplies at a higher price than they could get through their wholesalers.

He said the cost of food, labour, rent and other fixed costs had risen, but in 2019 pizzas were still sold at 1990s prices. “Nobody is left to pay for this but the franchisees,” the former owner said.

According to the Financial Review article, the cost of supplies remains a problem for franchisees. Time will tell whether Domino’s proposed 70 cent increase in pizza prices will help.

In response to questions from the Financial Review, Domino’s said the food margin had not “materially changed” in five years, despite volatility in ingredients prices.

Government reviews found the previous regulations had loopholes that did not sufficiently protect franchisees. There have been a string of high-profile disputes involving auto services company Ultra Tune, coffee chain 85 Degrees Coffee, Pizza Hut and others.

Following a 2024 inquiry, changes to the code of conduct were introduced this year.

Advertising costs on the rise

Advertising expenditure comes from what is now known as a “special purpose fund” in the code of conduct. Franchisors need to provide franchisees with disclosure about how the money is spent.

In 2017, the consumer regulator Australian Competition and Consumer Commission fined Domino’s A$18,000 for allegedly slipping on its obligations to advise franchisees about its marketing spend.

Ensuring franchisees have a genuine say in how their increased contribution is spent could help to address any imbalance of power between Domino’s and its franchisees.

Franchisees reportedly now pay 6% of their earnings to Domino’s for marketing and advertising, up from 5.35%. That is in addition to 7% of gross sales paid as royalties, and other costs for email and bookkeeping.

What insolvent means

The insolvency law for small businesses is explained by the Australian Taxation Office as a process that enables financially distressed but viable firms to restructure their existing debts and continue to trade.

The press reports say the franchisees of about 65 Domino’s stores were on repayment plans with the Australian Taxation Office. Many franchisees own two or more outlets.

Under the Corporations legislation, companies on these repayment plans may be trading insolvent, or believe they will become insolvent. Insolvent means they cannot pay their debts when they fall due. If this is the case, a key question that needs to be answered by Domino’s is whether their franchised outlets can become profitable.

In another media report, Domino’s was quoted as saying it disputed the number of stores on repayment plans, adding it was a “significantly smaller” number of franchisees.

The company was contacted for comment but did not respond before deadline.

What this means for the stores

So what does this mean for Domino’s store owners who may be trading insolvent?

Under the law, the restructuring process allows eligible small business companies:

  • to retain control of the business, property and affairs while developing a plan to restructure with the assistance of a small business restructuring practitioner
  • to enter into a restructuring plan with creditors.

If a company proposes a restructuring plan to its creditors, it is taken to be insolvent. This is a game changer for the franchisee and its creditors.

Franchisees receive protection from creditors who want to enforce rights under existing contracts. A franchisee’s creditors include suppliers, its landlord, employees, the tax office and the franchisor (in this case, Domino’s).

Currently these store owners are protected from any creditors pushing them to pay their debts. The restructuring process gives the store owners some breathing room while the debt negotiations take place.

The imbalance of power persists

Despite government inquiries and reviews, it seems the imbalance of power between the Domino’s franchisees and their franchisor persists.

But Domino’s can’t afford to stay the same. Franchisees need to make a profit. The move to enter restructuring could be a temporary band aid.

Domino’s largest shareholder and executive chairman, Jack Cowin, was appointed in July after the former chief executive left after just seven months. Cowin understands the franchised fast food sector and has pledged to lead a cost reduction program that will improve the profitability of stores.The Conversation

Jenny Buchan, Emeritus Professor, Business School, UNSW Sydney

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Australian economic growth is solid but not spectacular. Rate cuts are off the table

Stella Huangfu, University of Sydney

Australia’s economy grew by a softer-than-expected 0.4% in the September quarter, slowing from 0.6% growth in the June quarter. It confirms the recovery is tracking forward but without strong momentum.

Still, figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth was at a two-year high of 2.1%. That’s just above the Reserve Bank’s estimate of long-term trend growth of 2.0%.

The September quarter national accounts was the final major data release before the Reserve Bank’s meeting on 8–9 December.

The GDP result is steady enough to reassure the Reserve Bank the economy is not slipping backwards, while recent inflation data show domestic price pressures — especially in services — remain elevated. Together, the signals point clearly to a hold on interest rates next week.

All four major banks expect rates to remain on hold for many months, while financial markets on Wednesday were pricing in an 85% chance of a rate rise next year.

Across-the-board strength, led by IT

A key feature of the September quarter is the breadth of domestic growth.

In earlier quarters, much of the expansion came from the public sector — particularly government consumption and infrastructure spending — while private demand was subdued. This quarter marks a clear shift: private demand was the main driver, led by a strong lift in business investment, steady household consumption and continued public investment.

Domestic final demand rose solidly, with contributions from all major components — signalling improving confidence among both businesses and households and a more balanced base for growth than we saw earlier in the year.

Private investment led the gains, rising 2.9% – the strongest quarterly increase since March 2021.

Business investment in machinery and equipment jumped 7.6%, boosted by major data-centre projects in New South Wales and Victoria. IT-related machinery investment hit a record A$2.8 billion, double the June quarter, and aviation-related purchases also jumped. The Bureau of Statistics said in a statement:

The rise in machinery and equipment investment reflects the ongoing expansions of data centres. This is likely due to firms looking to support growth in artificial intelligence and cloud computing capabilities.

Household consumption rose 0.5%, but this was driven more by spending on essentials rather than discretionary items. A cold winter, reduced government rebates and a harsh flu season lifted demand for utilities and for health services.

Public investment grew 3.0%, after three quarterly declines. State and local public corporations led the rise through renewable-energy and water-infrastructure projects.

Coal exports are up

External conditions weakened this quarter as imports grew faster than exports.

Goods exports rose 1.3%, helped by a rebound in coal shipments and strong overseas demand for beef and citrus. Services exports were flat, as a fall in spending by overseas students offset a modest recovery in short-term tourism from China, Japan and South Korea.

Goods imports rose 2.1%, driven by demand for intermediate goods — especially diesel — and capital goods, mainly the data-centre-related equipment.

Companies drew down on inventories during the quarter, which acts as a drag on growth.

Households are saving more

Households remain central to the outlook. They are on firmer financial footing but still spending cautiously. The household saving ratio rose from 6.0% to 6.4%, helped by higher compensation of employees.

Economic growth per person (known as GDP per capita) was flat this quarter, but up 0.4% over the year. After several negative quarters, living standards appear to have stopped falling, though improvements remain modest.

Overall, households are in better shape financially but remain hesitant — a pattern that supports stability, not a consumption-led surge.

A steady result, but not enough to shift the rate outlook

Some parts of this quarter’s outcome — including the lift in machinery and aviation-related spending — are unlikely to be repeated.

For the interest rate outlook, however, the key issue remains inflation. Price pressures are still above the Reserve Bank’s target band, and services inflation has been slower to ease than anticipated. The Reserve Bank now expects a more gradual return to the 2–3% target band.

After three rate cuts earlier this year — the most recent in August — markets were expecting at least one more rate cut. That view has shifted. Sticky services inflation and a slower forecast decline mean expectations of further cuts have faded.

A steadier footing, but risks remain

The September quarter shows an economy on a steady, though still moderate, footing. Domestic demand is broad-based, investment is strong, and households have more income support — even if they remain cautious.

But this is not yet a turning point. Inflation is still above target. As Australia enters 2026, the Reserve Bank remains firmly on hold — but alert to the possibility that, if inflation stays above 3%, the next adjustment may need to be upward rather than downward.The Conversation

Stella Huangfu, Associate Professor, School of Economics, University of Sydney

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Macquarie Technology explores JV, capital recycling for $3bn data centre


Posted by Harry Baldock : The Australian technology giant is considering “a range of potential funding alternatives” to support the project

Earlier this week, Macquarie Technology Group revealed to investors that it was exploring funding options for a new 150MW data centre campus project, aiming to meet the expected boom in demand for AI and cloud computing.

The new campus would require between $2.5 billion and $3 billion in capital, excluding land value.

Speaking to investors on Tuesday, CEO David Tudehope said that the company was currently exploring its options for financing the data centre build out at the optioned location. One possibility would be to recycle capital by selling off a stake in the company’s more mature data centre assets. Alternatively, Macquarie could also partner with a third-party to create a joint venture.

“Funding for the new campus […] will come from recycled capital from the existing data centres and/or a development partnership,” said Tudehope, as reported in the Financial Review. “Both of those ideas are quite common overseas but are less common in Australia.”

The tech company has already struck a deal for the required land in Sydney for $240 million earlier this year, to be funded through cash reserves and debt.

Macquarie has been investing in data centres since 2018, with its flagship project taking place at the Macquarie Park Data Centre Campus in Sydney. Phase 1 of the site’s development, known as Sydney IC3 East, was completed in 2020, providing over 12MW of capacity. Phase 2, will see the site scaled further with the construction of the IC3 Super West data centre, bringing total capacity to 65MW.

Construction on C3 Super West began last year and is expected to be complete by Q3 2026. Macquarie extended its loan facilities to $450 million last year to facilitate this expansion.Combining these existing assets with the planned 150MW would make Macquarie one of the largest data centre providers in Australia. Macquarie Technology explores JV, capital recycling for $3bn data centre
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TPG suffers data breach impacting 280,000 customers


Posted by Harry Baldock : Attackers reportedly hacked into an order management system from TPG’s subsidiary, the broadband provider iiNet Australia’s TPG has become the latest telco to suffer a major cybersecurity breach this weekend, with data having been exfiltrated from its ISP subsidiary, iiNet.

The breach occurred on August 16, where reports suggest it was quickly detected and contained. Nonetheless, the attack reportedly compromised around 280,000 active email addresses; 20,000 active landline phone numbers; 10,000 iiNet customer names, street addresses, and phone numbers; and 1,700 modem setup passwords.

“We unreservedly apologise to our iiNet customers impacted by this incident,” TPG said in a statement to the Australian Securities Exchange. “We will be taking immediate steps to contact impacted iiNet customers, advise of any actions they should take and offer our assistance. We will also contact all non-impacted iiNet customers to confirm they have not been affected.”

No sensitive customer information, like bank details or personal identity documents, was impacted by the breach, as this data was not stored in the iiNet order management system.

“We do not currently have any evidence to suggest an impact to our broader systems or other customers,” TPG said.

TPG says it is working closely with the Australian Cyber Security Centre, National Office of Cyber Security, Australian Signals Directorate, and the Office of the Australian Information Commissioner to better understand the breach and take appropriate action.

Investigations into how the attackers gained access to these systems are underway, with early indications suggesting that account credentials had been stolen from an employee.

The first half of this decade has not been kind to TPG when it comes to cybersecurity. The company’s Hosted Exchange service, which provides email hosting for iiNet and Westnet business customers, was notably hacked at the end of 2022, impacting around 15,000 business customers. The attackers appeared to be accessing customers’ cryptocurrency and financial information.

Investigations into this attack are still ongoing.

Both attacks combined, however, still pale in comparison to that experienced by TPG’s rival Optus in 2022, when bad actors gained access to the data of up to 10 million of the company’s current and former customers. Illegally obtained information included customers’ names, dates of birth, home addresses, and more.

While a ransom of $1.5 million was initially demanded for the return of the data, the attacker ultimately backed down, allegedly deleting the stolen data due to the unwanted attention it garnered from law enforcement.Keep up with all the latest telecoms news with the Total Telecom newsletter TPG suffers data breach impacting 280,000 customers | Total Telecom
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Time to move beyond billboards: Australia’s tourism strategy needs to embrace the personal

Australia continues to rely on billboard-style and cinematic advertising to promote itself as a destination. This approach, used for decades, presents a national image built around iconic sites and curated visuals.

While this style may appeal to tourism bodies because of the celebrity-fronted content and central control, it is increasingly out of step with how modern travellers plan their journeys.

In 2025, travellers are scrolling TikTok, watching Instagram reels, and browsing peer reviews. Tourism campaigns should meet people where they are.

Authenticity beats curated content

Social media is a central source of travel inspiration, particularly for Gen Z and millennials, according to a global survey of 20,000 respondents across all age groups.

Almost 90% of young travellers discover new destinations through TikTok, and 40% say they have booked a trip directly because of something they saw on the platform.

What matters most is not just reach, but trust.

Influencers shape behaviour from desire to booking and post-trip sharing. Their impact rests on perceived authenticity. Real people telling stories resonate more than stylised ads.

Storytelling sits at the heart of this shift, and tourism providers can engage in this form of storytelling, too. Airbnb’s Host Stories campaign invites hosts to share personal narratives through short videos and blog posts.

By highlighting real hosts and their daily lives, marketing moves beyond selling places and instead emphasises authentic, locally rooted connections that resonate with travellers.

It introduces travellers to places through personal experience, grounded in local knowledge and genuine connection.

User-generated content builds trust

A 2025 study found user-generated content enhances emotional connection and perceived authenticity with potential tourists.

Stumbling on a friend’s holiday photo or a short travel video in their feed can increase the appeal of a destination. Unlike traditional advertising, which requires deliberate placement, peer content can influence simply by appearing in everyday browsing.

Australia has used participatory storytelling before. One powerful example is Tourism Queensland’s 2009 Best Job in the World campaign, which invited applicants from around the world to compete for a six-month caretaker role on Hamilton Island in the Great Barrier Reef. All they had to do was submit a short video explaining why they were the right candidate.

The campaign went viral, attracting over 34,000 applicants from 200+ countries, millions of website hits and global media overage.

Its success was driven less by who eventually got the job and more by the anticipation and unusual premise. It stood out because of simplicity and inclusivity, inviting real people to be part of the narrative.

Yet, 16 years on, Australia’s national tourism campaigns still rely on cinema ads, billboards and polished TV commercials built around icons such as Uluru and the Sydney Harbour Bridge.

From storytelling to story-sharing

The long-running Inspired by Iceland campaign consistently encourages locals to share authentic travel memories, cultural insights and personal stories.

Iceland Hour, launched in June 2010, saw schools, parliament and businesses pause for a coordinated social media push. Citizens and international supporters posted more than 1.5 million positive, personal messages across social media in a single week.

The campaign helped rebuild confidence after the Eyjafjallajökull volcanic eruption, and contributed to a 20% year-on-year rise in tourist arrivals.

Finland’s Rent a Finn campaign, launched in 2019, embraced a similarly human-centred approach. Showcasing ordinary people rather than cinematic landscapes, the campaign reached 149 countries, contributed €220 million in additional tourism revenue and reinforced Finland’s reputation as the “world’s happiest country”.

The United Kingdom’s Great Chinese Names for Great Britain campaign in late 2014 invited Chinese audiences to propose Mandarin nicknames for 101 British landmarks.

Suggested names, such as “Strong Man Skirt Party” for a kilted parade or “Stone Guardians” for Hadrian’s Wall, were featured on Google Maps and Wikipedia.

The campaign attracted more than 13,000 submissions, sparked widespread engagement on Chinese social media and was followed by a 27% increase in visits from China. It was worth an estimated £22 million boost to the UK economy.

Storytelling as a sustainability strategy

Participatory storytelling is not only more engaging, it can also be more sustainable.

Japan’s Hidden Gems campaign redirects tourist traffic away from overcrowded areas like Kyoto and Tokyo by spotlighting lesser-known destinations through locally led narratives. These stories promote slower travel, distribute benefits more evenly and reduce pressure on fragile ecosystems.

Australia faces a similar challenge. Our global image is still anchored to a handful of spectacular but vulnerable icons.

Yet tourism is about more than selfies in front of sandstone or coral. By inviting regional communities and visitors to tell their stories, we could shift attention beyond brochure highlights and encourage deeper, more diverse engagement.

There is also a strong economic case for prioritising emotional connection. Research shows when travellers form personal bonds with a place – through memorable, localised experiences – they are more likely to return, recommend it to others and stay longer.

Tourism is a relationship, not a product

Visitors are not passive consumers of postcard moments but active contributors to a shared story.

Australia’s tourism strategy should reflect this. This could mean amplifying visitor photos and videos on official platforms, inviting local communities to co-design campaigns, and drawing on authentic user-generated content rather than polished advertising and cinematic masterpieces.

That means letting go of perfection, embracing authenticity and trusting that the people who come here, as well as the people who live here, have stories worth sharing.The Conversation

Katharina Wolf, Associate Professor in Strategic Communication, Curtin University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Solar-Powered Cars Race Across Australian Outback – with Fins to Also Harness the Wind

The Brunel Solar team from the Netherlands celebrates victory in Adelaide – credit, Charlie Bliss, Tim Hanley, Riley Williams, Julian Modra, Michael Hurren & Reece Calvert from Swift Hound.

At the Bridgestone World Solar Challenge, innovators and motorsport experts competed to race solar-powered cars 2,000 miles across the Australian Outback.

Reminiscent of the 24 Hours of Le Mans, when Interwar Period engineers tried to balance speed, maneuverability, and durability with wild designs, some of which eventually became road-standard, the World Solar Challenge hopes to push engineers to develop sustainable solutions to challenges facing electric automotion today.

This year, the spirit of innovation and problem solving was pushed even further, as along with racing from Darwin to Adelaide, the challenge took place in the wintertime, with 20% less sun than in other Australian seasons.

When looking at the cars, the first thing one notices is how much they look like aircraft carriers—a necessity for fitting enough solar panels to charge the batteries.

The other boat-like design is their narrow undercarriage and hull-shaped sides which help make them more aerodynamic. Much of the actual horsepower of an average car comes from pushing the air out of its way. The more aerodynamic a car, the less wind it must move, and the less energy it consumes.

This year however, even with these radical body shapes, the contests have had to push further the bounds of aerodynamism and efficiency.

“Fins are the flavor of the month, or certainly the flavor of this event,” said one organizer.

Indeed many of vehicles sported one or even two hi-tech fins. The Millennium car from the University of Michigan team uses its fin like a combination of the rudder and sail on a boat, generating forward thrust while also stabilizing it in crosswinds.

“This event is very relevant to look at the future,” said Bridgestone Vice President Hiroshi Imai, in a report from Reuters. “Even near-future technology may come from this kind of event.”

The Dutch team Brunel Solar eventually won the race, arriving in Adelaide 34 hours after leaving Darwin. Their car, the Nuna 13, had not one but two fins, which it used to achieve higher speeds without extra energy consumption. Solar-Powered Cars Race Across Australian Outback – with Fins to Also Harness the Wind
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Bunnings has toppled Woolworths as Australia’s most ‘trusted’ brand – what makes us trust a brand in the first place?

Think of some of the world’s biggest brands: Nike, McDonald’s, Coca-Cola, Apple. With what do you associate them? Are they positive associations? Now consider, do you trust them?

Brand trust is a measure of how customers feel about a brand in terms of how well the brand delivers on its promises. Trust is an important measure for any organisation, large or small.

Whether or not customers trust a brand can be the difference between choosing that brand’s products or services over another.

In Australia, Woolworths held the title of our most trusted brand for three and a half years. But recent cost-of-living pressures have put supermarkets in the spotlight for all the wrong reasons.

Roy Morgan Research’s most recent trust rankings show Woolworths has slipped to number two, handing its crown to hardware behemoth Bunnings.

It’s clear that trust is fragile and can be quickly squandered when brands lose touch with those they serve.

So what makes us trust a brand in the first place? And why do we trust some more than others?

What makes us trust a brand?

According to customer experience management firm Qualtrics, brand trust is

the confidence that customers have in a brand’s ability to deliver on what it promises. As a brand consistently meets the expectations it has set in the minds of customers, trust in that brand grows.

There are many ways to go about measuring brand trust. A typical first step is to ask lots of people what they think, collating their general opinions on product quality and the brand’s customer service experience.

This can be strengthened with more quantifiable elements, including:

  • online ratings and reviews
  • social media “sentiment” (positive, negative or neutral)
  • corporate social responsibility activities
  • philanthropic efforts
  • customer data security and privacy.

Some surveys go even deeper, asking respondents to consider a brand’s vision and mission, its approaches to sustainability and worker standards, and how honest its advertising appears.

Is this a real and useful metric?

The qualitative methodology used by Roy Morgan to determine what Australian consumers think about 1,000 brands has been administered over two decades, so the data can be reliably compared across time.

On measures of both trust and distrust, it asks respondents which brands they trust and why. This approach is useful because it tells us which elements factor into brand trust judgements.

Customer responses about the survey’s most recent winner, Bunnings, show that customer service, product range, value-for-money pricing and generous returns policies are the key drivers of strong trust in its brand.

Here are some examples:

Great customer service. Love their welcoming staff. Whether it’s nuts and bolts or a new toilet seat, they have it all, value for money.

Great products and price and have a no quibble refund policy.

Great stock range, help is there if you need it and it is my go-to for my gardening and tool needs. Really convenient trading hours, and their return policy is good.

In addition to trust, there are three other metrics commonly used to assess brand performance:

  • brand equity – the commercial or social value of consumer perceptions of a brand

  • brand loyalty – consumer willingness to consistently choose one brand over others regardless of price or competitor’s efforts

  • brand affinity – the emotional connection and common values between a brand and its customers.

However, trust is becoming a disproportionately important metric as consumers demand that companies provide increased transparency and exhibit greater care for their customers, not just their shareholders.

Why do Australians trust retailers so much?

Of Australia’s top ten most trusted brands, seven are retailers – Bunnings, Woolworths, Aldi, Coles, Kmart, Myer and Big W.

This stands in contrast with the United States, where the most trusted brands are predominantly from the healthcare sector.

So why do retail brands dominate our trust rankings?

They certainly aren’t small local businesses. Our retail sector is highly concentrated, dominated by a few giant retail brands.

We have only two major department stores (David Jones and Myer), three major discount department stores (Big W, Target and Kmart) and a supermarket “duopoly” (Coles and Woolworths).

It’s most likely then that these brands have been enjoying leftover goodwill from the pandemic.

As Australia closed down to tackle COVID-19, the retail sector, and in particular the grocery sector, was credited with enabling customers to safely access food and household goods.

Compared with many other countries, we did not see a predominance of empty shelves across Australia. Retailers in this country stepped up – implementing or improving their online shopping capabilities and ensuring physical stores followed health guidelines and protocols.

Now, with the pandemic behind us and in an environment of high inflation, the big two supermarkets face growing distrust and a public inquiry.

Lessons from the losers

After two high profile disasters, Optus finds itself the most distrusted brand in Australia.

Its companions in the “most distrusted” group include social media brands Meta (Facebook), TikTok and X.

Qantas, Medibank Private, Newscorp, Nestle and Amazon also made the top 10.

The main reason consumers distrust brands is for a perceived failure to live up to their promises and responsibilities.

For example, worker conditions at multinational firm Amazon are seen by some consumers as a reflection of questionable business practices.

Other brands may have earned a reputation for failing to deliver the basics, like when chronic flight delays and cancellations plagued many Qantas customers.

Lessons from the winners

On the flip side, consumers have rewarded budget-friendly retailers with increased trust in the most recent rankings.

Aldi, Kmart and Bunnings have improved their standing as trusted brands, no doubt in part because they have helped many Australian consumers deal with tight household budgets.

As discretionary consumer spending continues to tighten, we may see a more permanent consumer shopping shift towards value for money brands and discounters.

Trust is a fragile thing to maintain once earned. As we move through 2024, Australian companies must pay close attention to their most important asset – strong relationships with those they serve.The Conversation

Louise Grimmer, Senior Lecturer in Retail Marketing, University of Tasmania

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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